1. Suppose we are planning a 100 MW wind farm with a 1-year p-50 capacity factor of 44% and a 1-year p-99 capacity factor of 36%. The total cost to build the plant is $1,400/kW, and all power will be sold on a long-term power purchase agreement for $35/MWh. The plant has fixed operating costs of $40/kW-yr. A lender is willing to offer a 25-year loan at an interest rate of 4.5%.
(a) What is the wind farm’s Cash Flow Available for Debt Service (CFADS) if the lender sizes the debt based on a debt service coverage ratio of 1.30x at the p-50 level?
(b) What would the CFADS be if the lender instead used a DSCR of 1.00x at the p-99 level?
(c) Suppose the lender uses the smaller of the annual payments implied by parts (a) and
(b). What is the total debt capacity (i.e., maximum loan size) for the project?
(d) Assuming the project developers use the maximum amount of debt on offer, what percent of the project will be funded by the equity investors?
Answers to this question have been provided in the Excel file. Use the information in this question and the answer provided to answer the next questions.
2. Suppose we are planning power system operations for 24 hours. Data for a typical spring day in the San Diego Gas & Electric te
itory has been uploaded to an Excel workbook on Canvas (with generators aggregated to avoid exceeding Excel Solver’s limit of 200 decision variables). Data includes the resources, the availability of renewable resources in each of the 24 hours, and demand. Note that demand is recorded at the level of the transmission-distribution interface, and accordingly does not include any load served by distribution-level photovoltaics.
Construct a model in Excel describing this system and solve to determine an optimal production schedule for the six resources. Assume a gas price of $3.50/MMBtu, but leave in the capability to modify this assumption for future problem sets.
(a) What is the total cost to operate the system for the day?
(b) In what hours is the combined cycle gas plant on the margin? What is the price during these hours?
Answers to this question have been provided in the Excel file. Use the information in this question and the answer provided to answer the next questions.
2. Consider the linear program from Problem 2. If you did not produce a sensitivity report that yielded prices in each of the 24 hours, do so now (or consult the posted answers). Instead of the system problem, consider the optimization problem faced by the CCGT, which wants to maximize profit. Suppose that the system operator sets prices equal to the shadow prices calculated in the sensitivity report. The operator of the CCGT then determines a production schedule that maximizes revenue (quantity times price) minus its production cost. Note that we assume that the CCGT is a price taker, i.e., it cannot change the price by changing its production.
(a) For this optimization problem, what is the objective function?
(b) For this optimization problem, what are the decision variables?
(c) Construct a model describing the CCGT’s problem in Excel and solve to determine a profit-maximizing production schedule. How does the profit-maximizing schedule compare to the socially optimal schedule determined in problem 2?
3. Consider a modification to the 100 MW wind farm from problem 2. Suppose the annual capacity factor from the plant is normally distributed with mean of 44% and standard deviation of 4%. The total cost to build the plant is $1,400/kW, and the plant has fixed operating costs of $40/kW-yr. A lender is willing to offer a 25-year loan at an interest rate of 4.5%. However, unlike in problem 1, the plant does not sell its power on a long-term contract. Instead, it operates on a merchant basis, selling in the spot market. Spot market prices for the wind farm are a product of the natural gas price, the average market heat rate for the year, and a nodal scalar, each of which (we assume) follows a normal distribution. The natural gas price has mean $3.50/MMBtu and standard deviation $0.35/MMBtu. The average market heat rate has mean 10 MMBtu/MWh and standard deviation 0.5 MMBtu/MWh. The nodal scalar has mean 1.0 and standard deviation .03. This means that the expected price is $35/MWh, the same as the contracted price in problem 1. All random variables are assumed to be independent.
(a) In Excel, draw 1,000 samples of the 4 random variables and compute the annual electricity revenue for the plant under each draw. What is the average electricity revenue across the 1,000 samples? How does it compare to the p-50 revenue in problem 1?
(b) Compute the p-50 and p-99 CFADS under these assumptions, i.e., the 500th and 990th ranked outcomes in your sample.
(c) Given the increased uncertainty, suppose the debt provider insists on a debt service coverage ratio of 2.25x at the p-50 level. What is the total debt capacity of the project?
(d) Assuming the project developers use the debt size calculated in (c), what percent of the project will be funded by the equity investors? How does this compare to the contracted case we considered in problem 1? Note that since Excel will recalculate every time a new sample is drawn, it is okay if output values fluctuate slightly upon recalculation.
Problem 1
Assumptions
Unit
Plant Capacity 100 MW
Capital Cost 1,400 $/kW
P-50 Capacity Factor 44.0% %
P-99 Capacity Factor 36.0% %
Operating Expenses $40.00 per KW-Yea
PPA Price $35.00 per MWh
Sizing DSCR p-99 1.00x Ratio
Sizing DSCR p-50 1.30x Ratio
Interest Rate 4.5% %
Length 25 Years
Hours in Year 8,760 Hours
Conversion to USD 000 1,000 USD
Debt Sizing
p-50 p-99
Electricity Production (MWh) 385,440 315,360
PPA Rate (/MWh) $35.00 $35.00
Electricity Revenue $ 13,490,400 $ 11,037,600
Operating Expense 4,000,000 4,000,000
EBITDA $ 9,490,400 $ 7,037,600
Cash Flow Available for Debt Service (CFADS) $ 9,490,400.00 $ 7,037,600.00
Maximum debt service $ 7,037,600.00
Debt Capacity ($104,355,003.40)
Capital Cost 140,000,000
Equity share 25.5%
Demand
Hour Demand_MW
1 1615
2 1553
3 1518
4 1562
5 1733
6 1976
7 2274
8 2597
9 2838
10 3023
11 3125
12 2963
13 2743
14 2666
15 2578
16 2482
17 2422
18 2374
19 2378
20 2501
21 2506
22 2258
23 1988
24 1760
Resources
R_ID Resource Existing_Cap_MW Var_OM_cost_per_MWh Fuel Heat_rate_MMBTU_per_MWh
1 biomass 21.4 5.234 None 12.76
2 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle 1928.5 3.4 pacific_naturalgas 7.52
3 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine 788.4 10.8 pacific_naturalgas 10.69
4 onshore_wind_tu
ine 217.6 0 None 0
5 small_hydroelectric 7.32 0 None 0
6 solar_photovoltaic 500 0 None 0
Availability
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
onshore_wind_tu
ine 0.7505 0.7803 0.529 0.4621 0.3703 0.6396 0.3409 0.2269 0.7691 0.6046 0.511 0.4233 0.2394 0.2973 0.2262 0.3006 0.2628 0.3613 0.2418 0.2823 0.3305 0.4414 0.5812 0.6637
small_hydroelectric 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351 0.4351
solar_photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0553 0.2211 0.4776 0.5757 0.6039 0.6139 0.6446 0.6455 0.6241 0.5695 0.4678 0.3236 0.0477 0 0 0 0 0
Sensitivity Report 1
Microsoft Excel 16.0 Sensitivity Report
Worksheet: [ps3_answers.xlsx]Model
Report Created: 10/28/2022 11:51:55 AM
Variable Cells
Final Reduced Objective Allowable Allowable
Cell Name Value Cost Coefficient Increase Decrease
$C$13 biomass Hour1 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$D$13 biomass Hour2 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$E$13 biomass Hour3 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$F$13 biomass Hour4 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$G$13 biomass Hour5 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$H$13 biomass Hour6 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$I$13 biomass Hour7 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$J$13 biomass Hour8 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$K$13 biomass Hour9 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$L$13 biomass Hour10 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$M$13 biomass Hour11 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$N$13 biomass Hour12 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$O$13 biomass Hour13 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$P$13 biomass Hour14 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$Q$13 biomass Hour15 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$R$13 biomass Hour16 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$S$13 biomass Hour17 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$T$13 biomass Hour18 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$U$13 biomass Hour19 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$V$13 biomass Hour20 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$W$13 biomass Hour21 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$X$13 biomass Hour22 21.4 -42.981 5.234 42.981 1E+30
$Y$13 biomass Hour23 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$Z$13 biomass Hour24 21.4 -24.486 5.234 24.486 1E+30
$C$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour1 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$D$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour2 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$E$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour3 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$F$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour4 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$G$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour5 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$H$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour6 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$I$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour7 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$J$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour8 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$K$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour9 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$L$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour10 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$M$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour11 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$N$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour12 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$O$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour13 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$P$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour14 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$Q$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour15 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$R$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour16 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$S$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour17 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$T$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour18 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$U$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour19 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$V$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour20 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$W$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour21 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$X$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour22 1928.5 -18.495 29.72 18.495 1E+30
$Y$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour23 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$Z$14 natural_gas_fired_combined_cycle Hour24 XXXXXXXXXX 0 29.72 18.495 24.486
$C$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour1 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$D$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour2 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$E$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour3 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$F$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour4 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$G$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour5 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$H$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour6 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$I$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour7 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$J$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour8 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$K$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour9 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$L$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour10 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$M$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour11 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$N$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour12 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$O$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour13 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$P$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour14 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$Q$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour15 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$R$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour16 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$S$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour17 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$T$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour18 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$U$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour19 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$V$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour20 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 48.215 18.495
$W$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour21 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 48.215 18.495
$X$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour22 XXXXXXXXXX 0 48.215 48.215 18.495
$Y$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour23 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$Z$15 natural_gas_fired_combustion_tu
ine Hour24 0 18.495 48.215 1E+30 18.495
$C$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour1 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$D$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour2 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$E$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour3 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$F$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour4 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$G$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour5 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$H$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour6 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$I$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour7 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$J$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour8 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$K$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour9 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$L$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour10 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$M$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour11 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$N$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour12 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$O$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour13 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$P$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour14 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$Q$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour15 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$R$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour16 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$S$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour17 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$T$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour18 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$U$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour19 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$V$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour20 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$W$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour21 71.9168 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$X$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour22 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$Y$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour23 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$Z$16 onshore_wind_tu
ine Hour24 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$C$17 small_hydroelectric Hour1 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$D$17 small_hydroelectric Hour2 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$E$17 small_hydroelectric Hour3 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$F$17 small_hydroelectric Hour4 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$G$17 small_hydroelectric Hour5 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$H$17 small_hydroelectric Hour6 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$I$17 small_hydroelectric Hour7 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$J$17 small_hydroelectric Hour8 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$K$17 small_hydroelectric Hour9 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$L$17 small_hydroelectric Hour10 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$M$17 small_hydroelectric Hour11 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$N$17 small_hydroelectric Hour12 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$O$17 small_hydroelectric Hour13 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$P$17 small_hydroelectric Hour14 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$Q$17 small_hydroelectric Hour15 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$R$17 small_hydroelectric Hour16 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$S$17 small_hydroelectric Hour17 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$T$17 small_hydroelectric Hour18 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$U$17 small_hydroelectric Hour19 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$V$17 small_hydroelectric Hour20 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$W$17 small_hydroelectric Hour21 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$X$17 small_hydroelectric Hour22 XXXXXXXXXX -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$Y$17 small_hydroelectric Hour23 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$Z$17 small_hydroelectric Hour24 XXXXXXXXXX -29.72 0 29.72 1E+30
$C$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour1 0 -29.72 0 1E+30 29.72
$D$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour2 0 -29.72 0 1E+30 29.72
$E$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour3 0 -29.72 0 1E+30 29.72
$F$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour4 0 -29.72 0 1E+30 29.72
$G$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour5 0 -29.72 0 1E+30 29.72
$H$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour6 0 -29.72 0 1E+30 29.72
$I$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour7 27.65 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$J$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour8 110.55 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$K$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour9 238.8 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$L$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour10 287.85 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$M$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour11 301.95 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$N$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour12 306.95 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$O$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour13 322.3 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$P$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour14 322.75 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$Q$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour15 312.05 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$R$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour16 284.75 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$S$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour17 233.9 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$T$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour18 161.8 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$U$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour19 23.85 -48.215 0 48.215 1E+30
$V$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour20 0 -48.215 0 1E+30 48.215
$W$18 solar_photovoltaic Hour21 0 -48