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Provide 1 response to each student post. Each response should be 150 words each. Turnitin is being used to check for plagiarism and Please use APA format. Mark Engel XXXXXXXXXXTuesday May 7 at 7:36am...

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Provide 1 response to each student post. Each response should be 150 words each. Turnitin is being used to check for plagiarism and Please use APA format.

Mark Engel

XXXXXXXXXXTuesday May 7 at 7:36am

Taking into consideration all the possible routes that Edith and Mathew could drive together on their way to work, you have different estimated times for how long its going to take for them to get there. If Edith prefers to travel on I-20, which states is usually the fastest route at 25 minutes, minus any traffic delays they may come across, and Mathew would rather drive on Shea Blvd, which was 10 minutes longer than the I-20 route. Shea seems to be less susceptible for traffic jams, however, its tough to predict the future and both routes could potentially develop traffic jams at any point in time. Knowing that their route consisted of 20 work days in each month, and when travelling on the I-20, they found that three days out of the 20 had traffic jams on it. Now, if we try to factor in the winter months, which tends to lead to poor weather and worse driving conditions, they assume that the amount of traffic jams will go from three to six days out of the 20 work days in each month. Below is a breakdown showing the calculations for each scenario.

I-20 Route

17 days (no traffic) x 25 minute route = 425 total minutes

3 days (traffic jams) x 45 minute route = 135 total minutes

XXXXXXXXXX = 560 total minutes each month driving time

Shea Blvd

20 days (no traffic) x 35 minutes = 700 total minutes of driving time

I-20 in Winter Conditions

14 days (no traffic) x 25 minute route = 350

6 days (traffic jams) x 45 minute route = 270

XXXXXXXXXX = 620 total minutes driving in winter months

If Mathew were to purchase a new smart phone app that could show the status of the highway traffic prior to their drive each morning, they would be able to know which route is the fastest each morning, no matter the month of the year. If they could successfully drive their route for 19 of the 20 days with no traffic jam, I would take the average of both routes, which is 380 total minutes of driving time no matter if their route took them on the I-20 highway, or Shea Blvd. By the looks of the calculations, the I-20 route would be the best option when traffic is not present. If Shea Blvd was always traffic free, this would still not be the best choice as the drive time for the total 20 days is another 140 total minutes of driving. If Edith and Mathew would just give themselves 5-10 minutes of buffer time and leave that much earlier, they would still be ok if traffic did begin to pile up. I definitely believe this scenario is realistic, and I live in this type of environment each and every day on my way to work. Living in Southern California, we have some of the worst traffic in the country, and it really never dies down. I have to plan accordingly and use my traffic app to navigate to work, as it shows real time traffic scenarios. If things change while I am in route, I then look for an alternative route to get to work.



Mary Ann Bryszewski

XXXXXXXXXX:30pm May 9 at 3:30pm

Although there are traffic jams on I-20 highway, it is still more efficient to take this route versus Shea Boulevard, even in winter months where traffic jams increase. If Mathew purchased a new smart-phone app that could show the pattern of traffic prior to the drive, this would allow them to take the alternate route of Shea Blvd to decrease an additional time due to the jam if the jam took more than 10 minutes (45 average minutes with a jam -35 minutes on other route = 10 minutes saved per 20 minute delay).

For these answers, I am calculating time of travel only. There are many details that could impact this decision such as whether the alternative route is plowed in the winter time as good as the highway, if there is construction happening, and other unknown factors. We have to make the assumption that Shea Blvd does not get long delays or not enough to factor in over a period of a month. We could also factor who is driving and what rate of speed they are going. We are working with the details given to us to make the best decision on which route to take.

If we look at the information:

Route I-20 has an average of 3 traffic jams per 20 day cycle / 6 during winter months

The total amount of trips = 40 for a round trip drive.

I-20

Shea Blvd

25 minutes without traffic

35 minutes without traffic

45 minutes with traffic and long delays

35 minutes without traffic



Route trip with 3 traffic jams

Route time no traffic jams

37 round trips at 25 minutes each = 925 minutes

40 round trips at 35 minutes = 1400 minutes

3 round trips at 45 minutes each = 135 minutes


Total 20 round trips = 1060 minutes




Route trip with 6 traffic jams (winter months)

Route trip no traffic jams (winter months)

34 round trips at 25 minutes each = 850 minutes

40 round trips at 35 minutes = 1400 minutes

6 round trips at 45 minutes each = 270 minutes


Total 20 round trips = 1120




As we can view, time is saved during the overall month on trips using the Route I-20 route either with or without traffic. Edith and Mathew are also saving on gasoline by carpooling together.

Answered Same Day May 11, 2021

Solution

Soumi answered on May 13 2021
155 Votes
Running Head: DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY    1
DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY     2
ECONOMICS
DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Response to Mark Engel
I completely agree with your information in the discussion board post and the opinions you presented there on your take on decision-making when there is any kind of uncertainty. The key strength of your discussion post is the fact that you have proven all of your points using calculations and showing every possibility that could have happened if each of Mathew and Edith had chosen one of the routes available. The comparison between the I-20 route and the...
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