Hello: please see below the assignment description: The 2 industries are: 1) Automotive Industry and 2) The banking industry Consult Statistics Canada and the data provided by the provinces, regions...

1
The economic outlook report
2
Table of Contents
Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 4
Global economy ....................................................................................................................................... 5
Cu
ent Situation of Global economy ................................................................................................. 5
Global economy and automotive industry during Corona virus out
eak ...............................6
Global economy and Financial industry ..................................................................................7
Economy of Canada ................................................................................................................................. 7
Employment situation in Canada .................................................................................................... 8
Retail Sales in the economy ....................................................................................................9
Consumer Price Index ...........................................................................................................10
Export and import of Canada .......................................................................................................... 11
Business investment ........................................................................................................................ 12
Canada Automotive industry and COVID 19 ............................................................................. 13
Canada Banking industry and COVID 19 ................................................................................... 14
COVID 19 and its impact on financial sector .............................................................................. 15
Economy of Ontario and the city of Toronto ............................................................................................ 17
Estimated impact on Ontario economy ........................................................................................ 18
Unemployment rate in Ontario .................................................................................................... 18
City of Toronto economy .............................................................................................................. 19
Market structure for manufacturing in Ontario ........................................................................... 20
Entry and exit condition of manufacturing activities .................................................................... 21
Market for financial service sector ............................................................................................... 21
Entry and exit condition of financial and insurance sector .......................................................... 22
Automotive Retail trade ................................................................................................................ 23
Wholesale trade ............................................................................................................................ 25
International Automotive trade .................................................................................................... 27
3

Auto industry trends and Challenges ............................................................................................ 28
Key Insight from the small business indicator .............................................................................. 29
Implications ................................................................................................................................... 29
Key Concerns ................................................................................................................................. 29
References ................................................................................................................................................. 30
4
Summary:
This outlook tries to examine the economic condition of automotive industry and financial
industry in Global and Canadian Economy .It also examines the difficulties faced by these
industry during the out
eak of corona virus with in Ontario and Toronto of Canada .The study
found that automotive industry is suffering from trade and government restrictions, financial
sector is booming in Toronto region of Canada
5

Cu
ent Situation of Global economy:
Gita Gopinath chief economist of International monetary fund (IMF) said that the out
eak of
COVID-19 will have adverse impact of global economy in 2020. It will be a worst recession
since the occu
ence of Great Depression followed by stock market crash. This pandemic
out
eak would make a loss of U.S $9 trillion of global GDP (Gross Domestic product).She said
that this will affect both developed and developing nations. Developing countries of rich western
economies will contract on an average by 6.1 per cent, the developing nations and emerging
markets forecasted to have a negative growth of – 0.1 per cent in 2020
Source: International Monetary Fund.
To control the spread and dead toll caused by the virus leads to take a measure lock down in
several states. Projection of 189 nations by IMF would contract by 3 per cent in 2020 compared
6

to the previous forecast of expanding by 3.3 per cent at the beginning of the year 2020.This
contraction is more compared to the Global financial crisis in 2009 of 0.1 per cent.
IMF sees there is a contraction of economy in 19 European countries by 7.5 per cent, Japan 5.2
per cent, United states 5.9 per cent, 6.5 per cent in United Kingdom, 5.2 per cent in Japan and the
pandemic originated China is expected to be 1.2 per cent growth in 2020.
Canadian economy will face a double hit from oil price collapse and out
eak of pandemic
diseases. Organization of International Monetary Fund forecasted that the Canadian economy
will down by 6.2 per cent, which is high compared to the contraction of 1 per cent in 2008 global
financial crisis. Lock down measure in March leads to jobless among one in 10 workers or more
than 2 million Canadians. Parliamentary Budget Office of Canada said that the Federal budget
deficit will increase to 8.5 per cent of GDP (Canadian $ 184 billion).The organization forecasted
that after the decline in economic growth of Canada in 2020, it will have a 4.2 per cent economic
growth in 2021.
Global economy and automotive industry during Corona virus out
eak:
Most of the automaker industry in the world sees China and United states as their market for
making income through sales. These two countries contribute large amount in demand for
automotive production. For example in quarter 1 2020 Porsche has sold around 53,125 cars I out
of which around 14,098 were sold in china and 11,994 units in U.S. The out
eak distu
ed the
global supply chain in the economy and the measures to keep control the spread of virus in the
nation has lead to shut down of many production units and on the other hand the global demand
of this product has come down due to lack of business activities and income generation.
7

Impact of pandemic disease on the global trade is predicted to around $5.7 billion .The cu
ent
event will severely affect this market and cause a decline around 12 per cent to 15 per cent. It is
mainly due to the supply chain destruction .Around 2.6 million people were employed in Europe
automotive industry of which 1.1 million jobs were affected due to the imposition of lock down
measure and it reported a loss of 1,231,038 in production. Economic loss were estimated to be
around $2.54 billion alone on this region. Spain and Germany also reported high productivity
loss.
Financial industry:
Financial market entered into the phase of risk off with significant increase in the market
volatility across the market after the wide spread of Corona virus in the world. Markets of equity
egan declining rapidly and making a loss around 30% of the market because of selling of
exceeding that of 2008 - 2009 Global financial crisis. World largest liquid market of U.S dollar
funding market and short term funding markets began to fall. U.S treasury shows the condition
illiquidity due to the stress caused by the disease out
eak by the end of March. This kind of
stress leads to affect the credit markets and making it difficult to firms and government to bo
ow
and invest in the economy. It will also increase the country’s Non-performing assets and causing
pressure on credit facility in the market.
Economy of Canada
Growth rate of Real Gross Domestic Product during corona virus out
eak:
8
Source: Statistics of Canada.
From above graph we can see that Canadian economy affected by Global Financial crisis was
around -1per cent to -2 per cent month over month in 2008, cu
ent spread of COVID 19 has a
high impact on the economic growth rate. Measures to avoid the spread of virus in the economy
declines the month over month economic growth by 7.2% in March 2020 8.2 per cent in first
quarter, in April 2020 the GDP of the nation is expected to be at -11%.
Employment situation in Canada:
9
Source: Statistics of Canada.
Employment in Canada declines after the out
eak of corona virus in the economy due to
implication of lock down in Canada to control the spread of this virus. These measures lead to
closure of almost all business activities and lead to laying-off of several workers from their job.
Employment in goods manufacturing sector were recovered around 25%, while it was recovered
only 5% in service sector of total job loss in this sector during March and April which recovered
in May 2020.Unemployement rate peaked in march to 13.7 per cent , there is no further decline
is expected in the employment.
Retail Sales in the economy:
Measure of lock down forced around 40 per cent of retailers remains shut their business activities
.It records a decline in 5 of 11 retail category sales such as sporting goods and ho
y stores, gas
stations, clothing retails, auto dealers and furniture stores. This measure leads to panic buying
which increased 25% of sales in grocery and necessary items. Statistic of Canada expected a
10

further decline in 15.6 per cent of retail sales in April. Sales of E-commerce were increased up to
40 per cent over year over in March 2020. It contributed around 5% of total retail sales. It
indicates that there is an increase in long term shift towards online shopping in upcoming years.
Consumer Price Index:
11
...