Division of EconomicsSE-5004L Statistics and EconometricsSemester Two, 2012/2013Level 2Assessment: Project reportSubmission Date: Until 3 p.m. Tuesday 30 April 2013 - Failure to submit a hard copy of your work by this deadline will result in a mark of 0%
- The assignment must also be submitted in electronic format to the ‘Turnitin’ drop-box in the Blackboard site for this module and the Turnitin reference code added to the hand-in sheet
- You are advised to plan your work carefully and back-up your work. Computing and printing problems will NOT be accepted as reasons for non-submission
- For your information when preparing your coursework, refer to the following:
- University Regulation on the Presentation of Work for Formal Assessment
http://www.bradford.ac.uk/media/academicqualityunit/documents/regulationsordinances/Reg-for-Presentation-of-Work-for-Formal-assessment.pdf
- Student Handbook on Plagiarism - remember to fully reference your work in the Harvard format.
SE-5004L Statistics and Econometrics, Semester Two, 2012/2013Project WorkThis study requires you to compile a sample data for: Savings rates (SR), GDP per capita (GDPPC) and Price inflation (PINF) for a set of 20 countries for one specific year. You need to specify the year and set of countries. You must then go and collect the data.
Sources: Data can be obtained from many places but a convenient source is: Global Competitiveness Report available from the World Economic Forum.
Task:1. Present your data in a table showing the names of the variables. Make sure the full definitions and sources of each variable are given.
2. The first equation to be estimated is:
SR i = b0 + b1 GDPi+ b2 PINFi+ ui (1)where u is a disturbance term and the subscript i represents country.
Answer these questions:
(i) In terms of economic theory what sign would you expect to find for the coefficients in the regression equation?
(ii) It is possible (with a little algebra) to obtain the marginal propensity to consume from this model. Work out an expression for this figure.
(iii) Why is there a constant term in the equation with no variable attached?
(iv) Why do these types of equations have a ‘u’ term?
3. Estimate equation (1) by OLS and present the results in a suitable table
(n.b. marks will be lost for simply pasting over the computer output)
(i) Comment on the results for the coefficients on the GDP and PINF variables.
(ii) Comment on the R squared statistic.
(iii) Is the estimated value of
b0 positive or negative? Does it matter for the reliability of your estimates for
b1 and
b2 whether
b0 is positive or negative?
(iv) Examine the residuals of your estimated equation to determine whether any of your countries is a regression residual.
4. Carry out the following hypothesis tests:
(i) b
0 = 0 against the two sided alternative at the 1% level
(ii) b
1 = 0 against the two sided alternative at the 5% level
- b2 = 0 against the two sided alternative at the 10% level
- b1 = b2 = 0 against the one sided alternative at the 5% level
5. You are now required to estimate the following form of the model using OLS:
SR i = b0 GDPi b1PINF b2 exp u (2)where u is a classical disturbance term and exp is the value of exponential. - Write down the estimating equation you need to use to estimate (2) by OLS.
(ii) Explain why the disturbance term enters equation (2) in a different form from equation (1)
(iii) What does the coefficient of b
2 now represent?
(iv) Explain how the impact of a one unit change in PINF on the savings ratio would be calculated
6. You must now estimate equation (2) Compare your results for equations (1) and (2).
7. You should now write a short report of XXXXXXXXXXwords. This should briefly summarize your findings
but most of your answer should consist of further exploration of your data and suggestions for improvement of the model you have estimated. [20 marks]
Deadline for submission is Tuesday 30 April 2013 before 3pm