Title Page
Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
Data set developed by Ana Iglesias of Universidad Politecnica de Madrid and Cynthia Rosenzweig of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and disseminated by the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), managed by CIESIN at Columbia University
March 2010
http:
sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mva/cropclimate
Data Description
In the coming decades the agricultural sector faces many challenges stemming from growing global populations, land degradation, and loss of cropland to u
anization. Although food production has been able to keep pace with population growth on the global scale, periodically there are serious regional deficits, and poverty related nutritional deficiencies affect close to a billion people globally. In this century climate change is one factor that could affect food production and availability in many parts of the world, particularly those most prone to drought and famine.
The purpose of this data set is to provide an assessment of potential climate change impacts on world staple crop production (wheat, rice, and maize) with a focus on quantitative estimates of yield changes based on multiple climate scenario runs. The data set assesses the implications of temperature and precipitation changes for world crop yields taking into account uncertainty in the level of climate change expected and physiological effects of ca
on dioxide on plant growth. Adaptation is explicitly considered and incorporated into the results by assessing the country or regional potential for reaching optimal crop yield. Optimal yield is the potential yield non limited by water, fertilizer, and without management constraints. Adapted yields are evaluated in each country as a fraction of the potential yield. The weighting factor combines the ratio of cu
ent yields to cu
ent yield potential and the economic limitation of the economic country’s agricultural systems.
The baseline year for crop yield changes is the average yield simulated under cu
ent climate XXXXXXXXXXbaseline). The resulting yield change data were then fed into trade models to assess impacts on prices and overall food production. (Please note that total production changes need to be treated with caution, since production is determined by many factors.) The overall objective is to calculate quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on the amount of food produced globally, and to determine the consequences to world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger.
This data set is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The initial study was published in 1997, based on output of HadCM2 model forced with greenhouse gas concentration from the IS95 emission scenarios in 1997. Results of the initial study are presented at SEDAC's Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study, released in 2001. The co-authors developed and tested a method for investigating the spatial implications of climate change on crop production. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) dynamic process crop growth models, are specified and validated for one hundred and twenty seven sites in the major world agricultural regions. Results from the crop models, cali
ated and validated in the major crop-growing regions, are then used to test functional forms describing the response of yield changes in the climate and environmental conditions. This updated version is based on HadCM3 model output along with GHG concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The crop yield estimates incorporate some major improvements: 1) consistent crop simulation methodology and climate change scenarios; 2) weighting of model site results by contribution to regional and national, and rainfed and i
igated production; 3) quantitative foundation for estimation of physiological CO2 effects on crop yields; and 4) Adaptation is explicitly considered.
This work links biophysical and statistical models in a rigorous and testable methodology, based on cu
ent understanding of processes of crop growth and development. The validated site crop models are useful for simulating the range of conditions under which crops are grown in the world, and provide the means to estimate production functions when experimental field data are not available. The derived functions are appropriate for application in global environmental change studies because they incorporate responses to higher temperatures, changed hydrological regimes, and higher levels of atmospheric CO2. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield variance in the cu
ent climate are crop water (sum of precipitation and i
igation) and temperature during the growing season.
Data Set Citation
Iglesias, Ana, and Cynthia Rosenzweig XXXXXXXXXXEffects of Climate Change on Global Food Production under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios: Data from a Crop Modeling Study. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University. Available at http:
sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mva/cropclimate/ (date of download)
References
Pa
y, M.L., Fischer, C., Livermore, M., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., 1999. Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environmental Change 9, 51–67
Pa
y, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., Fischer, C., 2004. Effect of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14, 53–67
Rosenzweig, C., and A. Iglesias XXXXXXXXXXPotential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study, Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, Columbia University. Available at http:
sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/giss_crop_study/index.html
Rosenzweig, C., M. L. Pa
y, G. Fischer, and K. Frohberg XXXXXXXXXXClimate change and world food supply. Research Report No. 3. Oxford: University of Oxford, Environmental Change Unit.
Data Dictionary
Data filenames Example Description
BLS_2_Countries_(SRES)_ABBREVNAME Australia country name
Fips_code AS country code
WH_2000 20,069,730 wheat production average 2000 to 2006 in t (FAO)
RI_2000 891,259 rice production average 2000 to 2006 in t (FAO)
MZ_2000 367,102 maize production average 2000 to 2006 in t (FAO)
WHA1F2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2020 scenario
RIA1F2020 0.542 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2020 scenario
MZA1F2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2020 scenario
ActChWHA1F2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A1FI 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIAIF2020 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A1FI 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA1F2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A1FI 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA1F2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2050 scenario
RIA1F2050 6.054 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2050 scenario
MZA1F2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2050 scenario
ActChWHA1F2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A1FI scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIAIF2050 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A1FI scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA1F2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A1FI scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA1F2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2080 scenario
RIA1F2080 8.95 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2080 scenario
MZA1F2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A1FI 2080 scenario
ActChWHA1F2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A1FI scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIAIF2080 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A1FI scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA1F2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A1FI scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2a2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2020 scenario
RIA2a2020 0.605 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2020 scenario
MZA2a2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2020 scenario
ActChWHA2a2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2a 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2a2020 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2a 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2a2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2a 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2a2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2050 scenario
RIA2a2050 4.342 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2050 scenario
MZA2a2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2050 scenario
ActChWHA2a2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2a 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2a2050 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2a 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2a2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2a 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2a2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2080 scenario
RIA2a2080 10.645 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2080 scenario
MZA2a2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2a 2080 scenario
ActChWHA2a2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2a 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2a2080 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2a 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2a2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2a 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2b2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2020 scenario
RIA2b2020 0.073 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2020 scenario
MZA2b2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2020 scenario
ActCHWHA2b2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2b 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2b2020 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2b 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2b2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2b 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2b2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2050 scenario
RIA2b2050 4.419 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2050 scenario
MZA2b2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2050 scenario
ActCHWHA2b2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2b 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2b2050 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2b 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2b2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2b 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2b2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2080 scenario
RIA2b2080 11.442 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2080 scenario
MZA2b2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2b 2080 scenario
ActChWHA2b2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2b 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2b2080 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2b 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2b2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2b 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2c2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2020 scenario
RIA2c2020 0.437 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2020 scenario
MZA2c2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2020 scenario
ActChWHA2c2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2c 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2c2020 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2c 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2c2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES A2c 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2c2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2050 scenario
RIA2c2050 4.986 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2050 scenario
MZA2c2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2050 scenario
ActChWHA2c2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2c 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2c2050 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2c 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2c2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES A2c 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHA2c2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2080 scenario
RIA2c2080 10.736 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2080 scenario
MZA2c2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES A2c 2080 scenario
ActChWHA2c2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2c 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIA2c2080 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2c 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZA2c2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES A2c 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHB1a2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2020 scenario
RIB1a2020 -0.171 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2020 scenario
MZB1a2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2020 scenario
ActChWHB1a2020 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES B1a 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIB1a2020 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES B1a 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZB1a2020 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2020 applying the SRES B1a 2020 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHB1a2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2050 scenario
RIB1a2050 2.197 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2050 scenario
MZB1a2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2050 scenario
ActChWHB1a2050 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES B1a 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIB1a2050 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES B1a 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZB1a2050 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2050 applying the SRES B1a 2050 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
WHB1a2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2080 scenario
RIB1a2080 1.16 rice yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2080 scenario
MZB1a2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize yield change (%) from baseline under the SRES B1a 2080 scenario
ActChWHB1a2080 XXXXXXXXXX wheat total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES B1a 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChRIB1a2080 XXXXXXXXXX rice total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES B1a 2080 scenario yield change to the 1990 production
ActChMZB1a2080 XXXXXXXXXX maize total production changes in 2080 applying the SRES B1a