The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. versus United Parcel Service, Inc. (SPREADSHEET)
Title Page
This spreadsheet supports the STUDENT analysis of the case “The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. versus United Parcel Service, Inc. (UVA-F-1773).
This spreadsheet was prepared by Jenny Craddock, Senior Case Writer, and Michael J. Schill, Professor of Business Administration. Copyright © 2017 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail to XXXXXXXXXX. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.
Feb. 13, 2017
Exh 1
Exhibit 1
The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc.
Revenues for FedEx and UPS by Business and Geography Segment (millions)
FedEx 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Geography
U.S. Domestic Revenue 24,852 27,461 29,837 30,948 32,259 34,216
International Revenue 9,882 11,843 12,843 13,339 13,308 13,237
Business
FedEx Express 21,555 24,581 26,515 27,171 27,121 27,239
FedEx Ground 7,439 8,485 9,573 10,578 11,617 12,984
FedEx Freight 4,321 4,911 5,282 5,401 5,757 6,191
FedEx Services* 1,419 1,327 1,310 1,137 1,072 1,039
UPS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Geography
U.S. Domestic Revenue 36,795 39,347 40,428 41,772 43,840 45,309
International Revenue 12,750 13,758 13,699 13,666 14,392 13,054
Business
U.S. Domestic Package
Next-Day Air 5,835 6,229 6,412 6,443 6,581 6,570
Defe
ed 2,975 3,299 3,392 3,437 3,672 3,903
Ground 20,932 22,189 23,052 24,194 25,598 26,274
International Package 11,133 12,249 12,124 12,429 12,988 12,149
Supply-Chain & Freight 8,670 9,139 9,147 8,935 9,393 9,467
* FedEx Services provides back-office support to FedEx's three transportation segments and printing and retail support to customers through FedEx Office.
Data source: Company SEC filings.
Exh 2
Exhibit 2
The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc.
Operating Results for UPS, Inc. (period ending Dec. 31, in millions)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue 49,545 53,105 54,127 55,438 58,232 58,363
Operating Income (EBIT) 5,641 6,080 1,343 7,034 4,968 7,668
Interest Expense 354 348 393 380 353 341
Net Income 3,338 3,804 807 4,372 3,032 4,844
Capital Expenditures 1,389 2,005 2,153 2,065 2,328 2,379
Cash and Marketable Securities 4,081 4,275 7,924 5,245 3,283 4,726
Accounts Receivable 6,117 6,246 6,111 6,502 6,661 7,134
Total Cu
ent Assets 11,569 12,284 15,591 13,387 11,218 13,208
Net Prop., Plant, and Equip. 17,387 17,621 17,894 17,961 18,281 18,352
Total Asssets 33,597 34,077 38,818 35,553 35,440 38,311
Cu
ent Liabilities 5,902 6,514 8,390 7,131 8,621 10,696
Total Debt 10,846 11,128 12,870 10,872 10,779 14,334
Total Stockholders' Equity 8,047 7,108 4,733 6,488 2,158 2,491
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth CAGR (’10–’15)
Revenue Growth 7.2% 1.9% 2.4% 5.0% 0.2% 17.8%
Total Asset Growth 1.4% 13.9% -8.4% -0.3% 8.1% 14.0%
Operating Income Growth 7.8% -77.9% 423.8% -29.4% 54.3% 35.9%
Net Income Growth 14.0% -78.8% 441.8% -30.6% 59.8% 45.1%
Asset Efficiency Ratios
Working Capital Turnover 8.7 9.2 7.5 8.9 22.4 23.2 Revenue / (C. Assets – C. Liab.)
PPE Turnover 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 Revenue / PPE
Capital Expenditure % 2.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% Capital Exp. / Revenue
Total Asset Turnover 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 Revenue / Total Assets
Liquidity and Leverage Ratios
Cu
ent Ratio 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 C. Assets / C. Liab.
Cash Ratio 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 Cash & Mkt. Sec. / Cu
. Liab.
Total Debt / Equity Ratio 1.3 1.6 2.7 1.7 5.0 5.8 Total Debt / Total St. Eq.
Times Interest Earned 15.9 17.5 3.4 18.5 14.1 22.5 Op. Income / Interest Exp.
Profitability Ratios
Operating Margin 11% 11% 2% 13% 9% 13% EBIT / Revenue
Net Profit Margin 7% 7% 1% 8% 5% 8% Net Income / Revenue
Return on Assets 11% 12% 3% 13% 10% 14% (N. Inc. + Int. Exp.) / T. Assets
Return on Equity 41% 54% 17% 67% 141% 194% Net Income / Tot. St. Eq.
Economic Profit (millions)* $1,873 $2,189 -$602 $2,832 $1,946 $3,255
* Economic Profit (EVA) is calculated as EBIT * (1 – t) – CofC × (T. Debt + T. St. Eq), where t = 40% and CofC = 8%.
Data source: Capital IQ, Morningstar, company annual reports.
Exh 3
Exhibit 3
The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc.
Operating Results for FedEx Corp. (period ending May 31, in millions)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue 34,734 39,304 42,680 44,287 45,567 47,453
Operating Income (EBIT) 1,998 2,378 3,186 4,434 3,815 1,867
Interest Expense 79 86 52 82 160 235
Net Income 1,184 1,452 2,032 2,716 2,324 1,050
Capital Expenditures 2,816 3,434 4,007 3,375 3,533 4,347
Cash and Marketable Securities 1,952 2,328 2,843 4,917 2,908 3,763
Accounts Receivable 4,163 4,581 4,704 5,044 5,460 5,719
Total Cu
ent Assets 7,284 8,285 9,056 11,274 9,683 10,941
Net Prop., Plant, and Equip. 14,385 15,543 17,248 18,484 19,550 20,875
Total Asssets 24,902 27,385 29,903 33,567 33,070 37,069
Cu
ent Liabilities 4,645 4,882 5,374 5,750 5,312 5,957
Total Debt 1,930 1,685 1,667 2,990 4,737 7,268
Total Stockholders’ Equity 13,811 15,220 14,727 17,398 15,277 14,993
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth CAGR (’10–’15)
Revenue Growth 13.16% 8.59% 3.77% 2.89% 4.14% 36.62%
Total Assets Growth 9.97% 9.19% 12.25% -1.48% 12.09% 48.86%
Operating Income Growth 19.02% 33.98% 39.17% -13.96% -51.06% -6.56%
Net Income Growth 22.64% 39.94% 33.66% -14.43% -54.82% -11.32%
Asset Efficiency Ratios
Working Capital Turnover 13.16 11.55 11.59 8.02 10.42 9.52 Revenue / (C. Assets – C. Liab.)
PPE Turnover 2.41 2.53 2.47 2.40 2.33 2.27 Revenue / PPE
Capital Expenditure % 8.1% 8.7% 9.4% 7.6% 7.8% 9.2% Capital Exp. / Revenue
Asset Turnover 1.39 1.44 1.43 1.32 1.38 1.28 Revenue / Total Assets
Liquidity and Leverage Ratios
Cu
ent Ratio 1.57 1.70 1.69 1.96 1.82 1.84 C. Assets / C. Liab.
Cash Ratio 0.42 0.48 0.53 0.86 0.55 0.63 Cash & Mkt. Sec. / Cu
. Liab.
Total Debt / Equity Ratio 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 Total Debt / Total St. Eq.
Times Interest Earned 25.3 27.7 61.3 54.1 23.8 7.9 Op. Income / Interest Exp.
Profitability Analysis
Operating Margin 5.75% 6.05% 7.46% 10.01% 8.37% 3.93% EBIT / Revenue
Net Profit Margin 3.41% 3.69% 4.76% 6.13% 5.10% 2.21% Net Income / Revenue
Return on Assets 5.07% 5.62% 6.97% 8.34% 7.51% 3.47% (N. Inc. + Int. Exp.) / T. Assets
Return on Equity 8.57% 9.54% 13.80% 15.61% 15.21% 7.00% Net Income / Tot. St. Eq.
Economic Profit (millions)* -$60 $74 $600 $1,029 $688 -$661
* Economic Profit (EVA) is calculated as EBIT * (1 − t) − CofC x (T. Debt + T. St. Eq), where t = 40% and CofC = 8%.
Data source: Capital IQ, Morningstar, company annual reports.
Exh 5
Exhibit 5
The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc.
Financial and Market Performance
FedEx 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Stock Price, Dec. 31 Close 93.01 83.51 91.72 143.77 173.66 148.99
Dividends Declared in $ Per Share 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.6 0.8
Basic EPS (period ending May 31) 3.79 4.6 6.44 8.61 7.56 3.7
Price/Earnings 22.3 15.2 14.7 27.8 22.0 37.9
Annual Return -9.7% 10.5% 57.4% 21.2% -13.7%
Cumul. Annual Return -9.7% 0.8% 58.1% 79.3% 65.6%
UPS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Stock Price, Dec. 31 Close 72.58 73.19 73.73 105.08 111.17 96.23
Dividends Declared in $ Per Share 1.88 2.08 2.28 2.48 2.68 2.92
Basic EPS 3.36 3.88 0.84 4.65 3.31 5.38
Price/Earnings 20.9 17.8 88.5 67.1 27.6 22.0
Annual Return 3.71% 3.85% 45.88% 8.35% -10.81%
Cumul. Annual Return 3.71% 7.56% 53.44% 61.79% 50.98%
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Index Level, Dec. 31 Close 1,257.64 1,257.60 1,426.19 1,848.36 2,058.90 2,043.94
Annual Return -0.0% 13.4% 29.6% 11.4% -0.7%
Cumul. Annual Return -0.0% 13.4% 43.0% 54.4% 53.7%
Data source: Google Finance, Morningstar, and Capital IQ.
Figure 1
Figure 1
The Battle for Value, 2016: FedEx Corp. vs. United Parcel Service, Inc.
Market Share U.S. Package Market, 2015
Revenue Share – 2015
UPS 48.6%
FedEx 33.4%
USPS 18.0%
Ground Revenue Share – 2015
UPS 49.8%
FedEx 25.9%
USPS 24.3%
Express Revenue Share – 2015
UPS 45.7%
FedEx 50.9%
USPS 3.4%
Source: Brandon Oglenski, Eric Morgan, and Van Kegel, "North American Transportation and Shipping Equity Research," Barclays, May 2, 2016.
Ground Revenue
UPS FedEx USPS 0.498 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
Express Revenue
UPS FedEx USPS XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 3.4000000000000002E-2