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Three tanks A, B, C are engaged in batte. Tank a when it fires hits its target with hit probability 1/2. B hits its target with hit probabilty 1/3 and C with hit probability 1/6. Initally ( in the...

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Three tanks A, B, C are engaged in batte. Tank a when it fires hits its target with hit probability 1/2. B hits its target with hit probabilty 1/3 and C with hit probability 1/6. Initally ( in the first period) , B and C fire at A and A fries at B. Once one tank is hit, the remainin tanks aim at each other, The battle ends when there is one or no tank left. The transition matrix for this games is (the states are the subsets of tanks surviving)
ABC AC BC A B C NONE
ABC 5/ XXXXXXXXXX
AC 5/18 5/ XXXXXXXXXX
BC 4/18 0 10/ XXXXXXXXXX
A 0 5/ XXXXXXXXXX
B 0 0 5/ XXXXXXXXXX
C 4/18 1/12 2/ XXXXXXXXXX
NONE 0 1/12 1/ XXXXXXXXXX
A) Determine the expected number of rounds that the battle lasts (starting from state ABC)
B) what are the chances of the different tanks winning (being the sole surviving tanks).
Answered Same Day Dec 23, 2021

Solution

Robert answered on Dec 23 2021
120 Votes
One way to solve this problem is to consider there to be 8 states - Each of A, B, and C surviving.
Labelling these 8 states by (A, B, C), 0 indicating death and 1 survival, we have
(0, 0, 0), (0, 0, 1), (0, 1, 0), (0, 1, 1), (1, 0, 0), 1, 0, 1), (1, 1, 0), (1, 1, 1) for row and column
When we are in any state with A + B + C = 0 or 1, there is no further firing. Thus, we stay in this
statement.
In all other cases, we have transition. In the case where we only have 2 tanks remaining, we
have to use multiplications to see probability of each of the four results. In the case where we
have 3 tanks, we similarly use multiplications, taking into account the probability = 1/2 of firing at
each of the other 2 tanks.
Of course, we start with everyone in state (1, 1, 1)
For the first three states, (0, 0, 0), (0, 0,...
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