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refer to Section 5.4 of the text. Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near...

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refer to Section 5.4 of the text.

Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have

made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past 11 years. Monica notes that forecasted

landfall has been different from actual observed landfall as shown in the table below.

YEAR ACTUAL (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 24-HOUR FORECAST (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN)

1 4 6

2 5 5

3 30 40

4 2 10

5 12 13

6 7 5

7 11 11

8 21 25

9 12 8

XXXXXXXXXX

11 6 9

How accurate has the forecast been? Do you think this difference matters to a beach town? Can you develop a forecasting

system model that may be more accurate?

Explain your methodology and ideas in a paper of at least four pages. Be sure to research sources to support your ideas,

and integrate the sources using APA-formatted citations and matching reference lists. Additionally, use Times New Roman

12pt. double-spaced font.

Answered Same Day Apr 04, 2020

Solution

Pooja answered on Apr 11 2020
138 Votes
Introduction
I want to predict the miles from Johnstown for future years. The data for actual miles from John town for 11 years is given below. I consider predictions based on methods of linear regression, moving average, and exponential smoothing. The best method is select on basis of Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean square e
or (MSE).
    YEAR 
    ACTUAL (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 
    1
    4
    2
    5
    3
    30
    4
    2
    5
    12
    6
    7
    7
    11
    8
    21
    9
    12
    10
    12
    11
    6
Analysis
The 24-hour forecast for miles from Johnstown is given and its reliability is to be analyzed. There are various measures of forecasting. I consider predictions based on methods of linear regression, moving average, and exponential smoothing. The given 24-hour forecast for miles from Downtown is summarized in the table below. Harvey, A. C., & Harvey, A. C. (1993). 
    YEAR 
    ACTUAL (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 
    24-HOUR FORECAST (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN)
    1
    4
    6
    2
    5
    5
    3
    30
    40
    4
    2
    10
    5
    12
    13
    6
    7
    5
    7
    11
    11
    8
    21
    25
    9
    12
    8
    10
    12
    15
    11
    6
    9
Linear regression is given in the form of Y-hat = b0 + b1*X. beta_0 and Beta 1 are intercept and slope of the regression equation respectively. In this case, the regression equation is y = 9.945 + 0.19*x. my dependent variable (y) is miles from Johnstown. The independent variable (x) is the year. The predictions for 11 years on the basis of linear regression or trend analysis is given in the table below. Fox, J. (1997). 
    YEAR 
    ACTUAL (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 
    Trend
    1
    4
    10.136
    2
    5
    10.327
    3
    30
    10.518
    4
    2
    10.709
    5
    12
    10.900
    6
    7
    11.091
    7
    11
    11.282
    8
    21
    11.473
    9
    12
    11.664
    10
    12
    11.855
    11
    6
    12.045
The formula for...
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