Macroeconomics and Forecasting
Assignment: Homework 3
Learning Objectives
• Use the multiplier model to determine and explain changes in equili
ium output.
• Use the IS/LM model to determine and explain changes in real income and the interest rate.
• Use dataZoa to create auto-updating chart and table.
• Interpret multiple time series plots.
• Create a scatterplot and diagnose heteroskedasticity in a real-world data set.
• Calculate parameter estimates and forecasts using the simple and multiple linear regression models.
• Interpret parameter estimates, standard e
ors, and R2 from a linear regression analysis.
Due Date
Please submit your assignment by Sunday, December 8th at 11:59 PM (AZ time).
Assignment Overview
This assignment requires problem solving and short answer responses. Explanations should be in paragraph form and will generally be longer than one sentence. To complete this assignment, you will need to download the following files:
• O-MBA-ECON-555-dataZoa-Instructions.pdf
• O-MBA-ECON-555-Homework-3.docx
• Homework-3-Question-1-template.pptx
• hw3-3.xlsx
These four files are located in the Table of Contents -> Learning Modules -> Week 7 area of D2L.
Evaluation Criteria
This assignment is worth 100 points, with points per question specified below.
For Question 1 (25 points), be sure to explain fully which curve shifts and why. This explanation should be in paragraph form, with a minimum of three sentences. You may draw the graph directly in the Word document (see instructions in the Assignment). Alternatively, you may find it easier to draw the graph in the PowerPoint file (Homework-3-Question-1-template.pptx) and copy/paste into the Word document.
For Question 2 (15 points), be sure to get the right data and produce the appropriate table.
For Question 3 (30 points), a complete answer will co
ectly interpret the time series plot, and will calculate the appropriate estimates and forecast in Excel. You will receive partial credit if you make minor calculation e
ors
ut demonstrate an understanding of the key concepts and steps, or if you co
ectly calculate some of the required components but are not able to calculate all of them
For Question 4 (30 points), a complete answer will create the appropriate data set and the required scatterplot, and will co
ectly discuss the issue of heteroskedasticity. It will also provide co
ect numerical calculations to the linear regression component of the question. You will receive partial credit if you make minor calculation e
ors but demonstrate an understanding of the key concepts and steps, or if you co
ectly calculate some of the required components but are not able to calculate all of them.
Assignment Submission Instructions
Compose your answers in the provided O-MBA-ECON-555-Homework-3.docx file. Please update the file name so that it includes your first and last name for identification purposes, for example "SmytheMaryHomework3" and do NOT use any spaces, punctuation, or special characters in the file name.
Please remember to also modify the hw3-3.xlsx spreadsheet as explained in Question 3. Please update the file name so that it includes your first and last name for identification purposes, for example "SmytheMaryHomework3" and do NOT use any spaces, punctuation, or special characters in the file name.
Optionally, you may also submit the spreadsheet you used to calculate your answers to Question 4, following the same guidelines as for Question 3 in the previous paragraph.
Once you have finalized all files for this assignment, save them into a .zip file and submit the .zip file through the assignment drop box.
Page 2 of 3
FRED Graph
HW3-3.xlsx: Data For Homework 3, Question 3
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Link: http:
esearch.stlouisfed.org/fred2
Help: http:
esearch.stlouisfed.org/fred2/help-faq
Economic Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
USSTHPI All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States, Index 1980 Q1=100, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
A229RX0 Real Disposable Personal Income: Per capita, Chained 2009 Dollars, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
MORTG 30-year conventional mortgage rate. Quarterly average of monthly rates. Source: Primary Mortgage Market Survey data provided by Freddie Mac.
Frequency: Quarterly
observation_date USSTHPI A229RX0 MORTG
XXXXXXXXXX 59.65 54477 9.15
XXXXXXXXXX 61.18 56868 8.87
XXXXXXXXXX 61.22 55877 8.99
XXXXXXXXXX 62.27 56161 9.16
XXXXXXXXXX 62.81 56696 8.86
XXXXXXXXXX 65.47 56870 8.78
XXXXXXXXXX 66.61 57140 8.97
XXXXXXXXXX 67.47 57329 8.84
XXXXXXXXXX 69.40 57179 8.69
XXXXXXXXXX 72.69 57751 8.81
XXXXXXXXXX 74.30 58470 8.93
XXXXXXXXXX 77.17 59431 8.93
XXXXXXXXXX 79.53 59712 9.13
XXXXXXXXXX 82.78 60151 9.55
XXXXXXXXXX 85.25 60406 9.76
XXXXXXXXXX 87.47 60706 10.11
XXXXXXXXXX 91.39 61195 10.41
XXXXXXXXXX 94.35 60511 10.74
XXXXXXXXXX 96.40 60614 11.16
XXXXXXXXXX 98.34 60688 12.46
XXXXXXXXXX 100.00 60725 13.73
XXXXXXXXXX 101.55 59675 14.43
XXXXXXXXXX 104.46 60223 12.65
XXXXXXXXXX 104.81 61239 14.26
XXXXXXXXXX 105.44 60951 15.14
XXXXXXXXXX 107.53 60799 16.23
XXXXXXXXXX 109.28 61873 17.43
XXXXXXXXXX 109.18 61833 17.73
XXXXXXXXXX 110.86 61777 17.39
XXXXXXXXXX 111.84 61997 16.76
XXXXXXXXXX 110.82 62169 16.17
XXXXXXXXXX 112.21 62294 14.02
XXXXXXXXXX 114.21 62703 13.03
XXXXXXXXXX 115.38 63017 12.76
XXXXXXXXXX 116.36 63812 13.65
XXXXXXXXXX 117.01 65034 13.47
XXXXXXXXXX 118.74 66233 13.33
XXXXXXXXXX 120.28 67201 14.00
XXXXXXXXXX 121.49 67957 14.50
XXXXXXXXXX 122.47 68351 13.65
XXXXXXXXXX 124.15 68062 13.06
XXXXXXXXXX 126.05 69225 12.78
XXXXXXXXXX 128.05 68816 12.14
XXXXXXXXXX 129.44 69434 11.73
XXXXXXXXXX 131.92 70159 10.56
XXXXXXXXXX 134.66 70941 10.25
XXXXXXXXXX 136.70 71268 10.24
XXXXXXXXXX 138.81 71224 9.66
XXXXXXXXXX 141.54 71673 9.11
XXXXXXXXXX 143.76 70824 10.32
XXXXXXXXXX 145.37 71935 10.50
XXXXXXXXXX 146.29 72718 10.85
XXXXXXXXXX 148.58 73631 10.08
XXXXXXXXXX 151.53 74234 10.37
XXXXXXXXXX 153.12 74753 10.50
XXXXXXXXXX 154.55 75287 10.39
XXXXXXXXXX 156.32 76063 10.80
XXXXXXXXXX 158.49 75670 10.67
XXXXXXXXXX 161.84 75974 10.00
XXXXXXXXXX 163.17 76378 9.82
XXXXXXXXXX 164.10 76845 10.12
XXXXXXXXXX 164.76 77065 10.34
XXXXXXXXXX 165.76 76823 10.11
XXXXXXXXXX 165.12 75945 9.95
XXXXXXXXXX 166.50 75873 9.50
XXXXXXXXXX 167.62 76154 9.53
XXXXXXXXXX 167.90 76159 9.28
XXXXXXXXXX 170.28 76548 8.69
XXXXXXXXXX 171.59 77963 8.71
XXXXXXXXXX 171.55 78515 8.68
XXXXXXXXXX 173.50 78569 8.01
XXXXXXXXXX 174.39 78563 8.21
XXXXXXXXXX 174.45 78774 7.73
XXXXXXXXXX 176.11 78674 7.45
XXXXXXXXXX 177.54 78451 7.08
XXXXXXXXXX 179.00 78714 7.05
XXXXXXXXXX 180.14 79055 7.30
XXXXXXXXXX 181.24 79658 8.44
XXXXXXXXXX 182.00 79874 8.59
XXXXXXXXXX 181.83 80735 9.10
XXXXXXXXXX 182.80 81288 8.81
XXXXXXXXXX 185.78 81243 7.95
XXXXXXXXXX 188.62 81706 7.70
XXXXXXXXXX 190.12 81927 7.35
XXXXXXXXXX 192.27 82505 7.24
XXXXXXXXXX 192.59 83056 8.11
XXXXXXXXXX 193.46 83447 8.16
XXXXXXXXXX 194.95 83615 7.71
XXXXXXXXXX 196.59 84232 7.79
XXXXXXXXXX 198.24 84709 7.92
XXXXXXXXXX 200.97 85434 7.47
XXXXXXXXXX 203.57 86387 7.20
XXXXXXXXXX 206.62 88002 7.05
XXXXXXXXXX 208.47 88988 7.09
XXXXXXXXXX 211.38 89615 6.86
XXXXXXXXXX 213.89 90072 6.77
XXXXXXXXXX 216.15 90648 6.88
XXXXXXXXXX 219.04 90624 7.21
XXXXXXXXXX 222.14 90942 7.80
XXXXXXXXXX 224.44 92002 7.83
XXXXXXXXXX 228.72 93579 8.26
XXXXXXXXXX 232.45 94315 8.32
XXXXXXXXXX 236.67 95158 8.03
XXXXXXXXXX 240.33 95227 7.64
XXXXXXXXXX 246.25 95818 7.01
XXXXXXXXXX 250.37 95510 7.13
XXXXXXXXXX 254.25 97512 6.97
XXXXXXXXXX 257.41 96061 6.78
XXXXXXXXXX 261.12 98184 6.97
XXXXXXXXXX 265.54 98463 6.82
XXXXXXXXXX 270.82 98087 6.29
XXXXXXXXXX 274.67 98318 6.08
XXXXXXXXXX 278.02 98387 5.84
XXXXXXXXXX 281.40 99592 5.51
XXXXXXXXXX 285.69 100974 6.01
XXXXXXXXXX 293.76 101139 5.92
XXXXXXXXXX 298.33 101677 5.61
XXXXXXXXXX 305.58 102455 6.13
XXXXXXXXXX 317.24 102741 5.89
XXXXXXXXXX 323.99 103764 5.73
XXXXXXXXXX 331.45 102548 5.76
XXXXXXXXXX 342.02 103140 5.72
XXXXXXXXXX 352.31 103405 5.76
XXXXXXXXXX 360.29 103997 6.22
XXXXXXXXXX 366.06 106140 6.24
XXXXXXXXXX 369.85 106061 6.60
XXXXXXXXXX 372.92 106089 6.56
XXXXXXXXXX 376.74 107203 6.25
XXXXXXXXXX 378.17 107667 6.22
XXXXXXXXXX 377.96 107635 6.37
XXXXXXXXXX 373.84 107638 6.55
XXXXXXXXXX 372.81 107457 6.23
XXXXXXXXXX 370.32 107994 5.88
XXXXXXXXXX 361.28 110027 6.09
XXXXXXXXXX 350.15 107240 6.32
XXXXXXXXXX 347.08 107680 5.87
XXXXXXXXXX 349.70 107256 5.06
XXXXXXXXXX 340.40 107798 5.03
XXXXXXXXXX 331.46 106370 5.16
XXXXXXXXXX 329.14 105984 4.92
XXXXXXXXXX 325.18 105878 5.00
XXXXXXXXXX 322.39 107063 4.91
XXXXXXXXXX 325.55 107384 4.45
XXXXXXXXXX 323.24 107919 4.41
XXXXXXXXXX 314.32 109061 4.85
XXXXXXXXXX 309.09 108710 4.66
XXXXXXXXXX 311.68 109072 4.31
XXXXXXXXXX 313.19 108931 4.01
XXXXXXXXXX 309.96 110558 3.92
XXXXXXXXXX 308.93 111011 3.80
XXXXXXXXXX 312.91 110680 3.55
XXXXXXXXXX 315.49 113606 3.36
XXXXXXXXXX 317.13 109676 3.50
XXXXXXXXXX 322.32 110524 3.69
XXXXXXXXXX 327.80 110867 4.44
XXXXXXXXXX 331.19 110715 4.30
XXXXXXXXXX 333.56 111471 4.36
XXXXXXXXXX 340.98 112441 4.23
Macroeconomics and Forecasting
dataZoa Instructions
dataZoa is a cloud-based data management system. It allows the user to link to time series maintained by many of the most popular public data providers, including the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, FBI Crime Statistics, SEC Edgar Filings, and many, many more.
Once a user has created a link using dataZoa, the data will auto-update in the user’s account as new estimates become available. The data update will also capture revisions, a common occu
ence with most macroeconomic time series.
Users can then use dataZoa to create visualizations, like charts and tables, which will also auto-update as new estimates are released. These visualizations can be embedded in public or private webpages. See e
.eller.arizona.edu for examples.
Users can also import their own data into dataZoa, then create and share visualizations based on that data.
NOTE: you must use either Chrome or Firefox to use dataZoa. (Even with Apple products)
Creating Your dataZoa account:
Visit http:
www.dataZoa.com and create an account. Anyone with a valid arizona.edu email address will have access to a student account. A student level account will allow you to link to 400 auto-updating series of your choice. You can also import as much of your own data into dataZoa as you like.
1) Once you have your account, click on Quick Start (top of the screen) or use the Ready-Set-Go! Protocol provided by dataZoa in the center of the screen.
a. Follow the directions to install the dZ-Dot. (Step #1)
. View the videos on how to.
i. Drag some data
ii. Build a calculation
iii. Build a Display
iv. Share your work
c. Don’t wo
y about any references to DataZephyr, we will not use it in this class (Step #2 optional)
Example 1: Build a Simple Table in dataZoa
Create a table with quarterly US Real GDP Growth Rates (BEA US real GDP Table 1.1.1.)
1) Visit the BEA website(www.bea.gov)
a. See National: click on Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
. Click on: Interactive Tables: GDP and the National Income and Product Account (NIPA) Historical Tables
c. Click on Begin using the data
d. Explore and find Table 1.1.1.
e. Make sure that you have the BEA page display the range of data you want, for instance from 2013Q1-2016Q3
2) Drag/drop all data from Table XXXXXXXXXXinto your dataZoa account
a. Use the dZ-Dot
3) Create a list of the data you just imported, call it USRGDP_GrowthRates
a. Lists help you organize your data
. First, be sure you are on the Workbench tab (it’s right next to the dZ Dropzone)
c. Check the boxes for all of the series you just downloaded
d. Click on the GroupLists button (next to Export)
e. Type in the new name: USRGDP_GR, click Create
i. Note that you can this button to reorder the series in the group, if you like
ii. Don’t forget to click “Save Order” if you do choose to reorde
f. Now click on the Drop Down Menu (see the a
ow below) and select USRGDP_GR
i. Since this is your first group, there is no change
4) Select all data in the list by checking the top box
5) Click on the Table button: Table=>New
6) dataZoa will pop up a page titled: “Build an Embeddable Table of Data”
7) Name the Table: “US Real GDP Growth Rates”
8) Click the Tab labeled “Table Options”, dataZoa pops up a new set of tabs
9) Click the Tab labeled Table Settings: Give the table a title: “US Real GDP Growth Rates”
10) Select the number of periods to display: try 6
11) Click the Tab labeled “Knock Out Repetitive Label Text”: Click the button “Identify Repetitive Phrases”: datazoa suggests the repetitive text and deletes it from the table.
12) Be sure to save the Table (often)!
13) Note that you can use the Cell Formatting tab to control decimal places, etc.
14) Note that you can download the data in the table to CSV file, for further analysis and processing.
15) You can control the Table width and height (to eliminate the slider), as well as fonts, text size, and heading & row colors. See below for Style recommendations.
16) Keep in mind that this Table will auto-update as new
evised data become available.
Share the Table you created
1)