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How Traders Are Making Money as Oil Prices Go Nowhere " Many traders are adapting by pursuing what is known on Wall Street as a mean-reverting strategy, generally one that wagers prices will fall when...

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How Traders Are Making Money as Oil Prices Go Nowhere "

Many traders are adapting by pursuing what is known on Wall Street as a mean-reverting strategy, generally one that wagers prices will fall when oil is above a certain level and rise when it declines below a threshold.

In this problem we adopt the 'mean reverting' strategy and define the "certain level" as $50 a barrel. So when it rises above, bet on it coming back down and when it falls below 50, bet on it rising back up. Consider the graphic below - very similar to the graphic in the article.

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How Traders Are Making Money as Oil Prices Go Nowhere In quiet market, oil traders get a hand from out-of-style strategy A refinery stands in the background as a pump jack operates in an oil field near Corpus Christi, Texas, in 2016. Photo: Eddie Seal/Bloomberg News By Stephanie Yang Sept. 16, 2017 7:00 a.m. ET  HYPERLINK "https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-traders-are-making-money-as-oil-prices-go-nowhere XXXXXXXXXX" \l "comments_sector" 0 COMMENTS  A placid oil market is emboldening traders to adopt strategies that reap modest gains on small price moves, while risking big losses in the event of larger ones. U.S. oil futures have spent much of 2017 in a range around $50 a barrel—their least-volatile period in three years. The stalemate reflects expectations that crude will be supported by production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and limited by the capacity of nimble U.S. shale producers to boost output when prices rise. U.S. crude settled flat Friday at $49.89. Many traders are adapting by pursuing what is known on Wall Street as a mean-reverting strategy, generally one that wagers prices will fall when oil is above a certain level and rise when it declines below a threshold. Though the strategy promises only modest returns when the price is near the trading target, some traders are compensating by boosting their activity. In overall trading, average daily volume in U.S. oil futures rose 51% in August from a year earlier to the highest on record, according to  HYPERLINK "http://quotes.wsj.com/CME" CME Group Inc. The rise of the “yo-yo market” trade is the latest sign of how Wall Street is seeking to make the most of an environment in which outsize trading profits are few and far between. A longstanding regime of low volatility, or muted price swings, has swept over markets since the financial crisis. “You’ve got this standoff where everything is sort of in balance,” said Emil van Essen, head of the energy-focused fund...

Answered Same Day Dec 27, 2021

Solution

Robert answered on Dec 27 2021
111 Votes
Answers:1
Payoff Diagram
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
5
0
5
0
.4
5
0
.8
5
1
.2
5
1
.6 5
2
5
2
.4
5
2
.8
5
3
.2
5
3
.6 5
4
5
4
.4
5
4
.8
5
5
.2
5
5
.6 5
6
5
6
.4
5
6
.8
5
7
.2
5
7
.6 5
8
A
xi
s
Ti
tl
e

Payoff of Scenario#1
BE
(20,000)
(10,000)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
5
0
5
0
.4
5
0
.8
5
1
.2
5
1
.6 5
2
5
2
.4
5
2
.8
5
3
.2
5
3
.6 5
4
5
4
.4
5
4
.8
5
5
.2
5
5
.6 5
6
5
6
.4
5
6
.8
5
7
.2
5
7
.6 5
8
A
xi
s
Ti
tl
e

Payoff of Scenario #2
BE
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
5
0
5
0
.4
5
0
.8
5
1
.2
5
1
.6 5
2
5
2
.4
5
2
.8
5
3
.2
5
3
.6 5
4
5
4
.4
5
4
.8
5
5
.2
5
5
.6 5
6
5
6
.4
5
6
.8
5
7
.2
5
7
.6 5
8A
xi
s
Ti
tl
e

Payoff of Scenario #3
a)
Specifications of the Oil Contract:
Contract Unit: 1,000 Ba
el
Minimum Price Fluctuation: $ 0.01 per Ba
el
Certain Level Defined = $ 50 per Ba
el
Point A = $ 55 per ba
el
Strike Price of Put = $ 55
Price at Expiry = $ 50
Cost of per Put = $ 1,700
Total cost of purchase of 10 contracts = $ 1700 X 10 = $ 17,000
Gross Income from exercise of put option = ($ 55 - $ 50) X 10 X 1000 = $ 50,000
Net Profit = $ 50,000 - $ 17,000 = $ 33,000
The amount is same as indicated by the graph.
)
If we had wrote 10 call option of Strike price $ 50 instead of call option of Strike price $ 55
when the price of oil was at $ 55, we would have made lesser profit because the premium we
eceived by selling At the money call option would be higher than Out of Money call option. At
expiry both the options are worthless and we would end up with the premium we received.
c)
If we had wrote 10 call option of Strike price $ 50 instead of buying put option of Strike price
$ 55 when the price of oil was at $ 55, we would have made lesser profit because the premium
we received by selling OTM call option is much lesser than the profit earned by exercising put
option at expiry when the Oil price is at $ 50.
d)
Margin requirement for Oil future = $ 2,650
Value of Future Contract in Scenario #1 = $ 55 * 1000 = $ 55,000
So, the Leverage Ratio = ($ 55,000/ $ 2,650) = 20.76 times
e) Leverage ratio indicates...
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