Do problem XXXXXXXXXXSubmit one Excel file with your models and responses.62. The fileDownload...

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Do problem XXXXXXXXXXSubmit one Excel file with your models and responses.

62. The fileDownload P12_62.xlsxcontains data on a motel chain’s revenue and advertising.

Use these data and multiple regression to make predictions of the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters. Assume that advertising during each of the next four quarters is $50,000. (Hint: Try using advertising, lagged by one quarter, as an explanatory variable.)
Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
Use Holt’s method to make forecasts for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
Use Winters’ method to determine predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
Which of these forecasting methods would you expect to be the most accurate for these data?
PLEASE SUBMIT THE ANSWER IN EXCEL FILE

Rochak · Accepted Answer

Data
	Quarter	Advertising	Revenue
	1	$30,000	$1,200,000
	2	$20,000	$880,000
	3	$15,000	$1,800,000
	4	$40,000	$1,050,000
	5	$10,000	$1,700,000
	6	$50,000	$350,000
	7	$5,000	$2,500,000
	8	$40,000	$760,000
	9	$20,000	$2,300,000
	10	$10,000	$1,000,000
	11	$60,000	$1,570,000
	12	$5,000	$2,430,000
	13	$35,000	$1,320,000
	14	$15,000	$1,400,000
	15	$70,000	$1,890,000
	16	$25,000	$3,200,000
	17	$30,000	$2,200,000
	18	$60,000	$1,440,000
	19	$80,000	$4,000,000
	20	$50,000	$4,100,000
This is fictitious data.
Regression
	SUMMARY OUTPUT
	Regression Statistics
	Multiple R	0.1756619542
	R Square	0.0308571221
	Adjusted R Square	-0.0261512824
	Standard Error	1042407.40411312
	Observations	19
	ANOVA
		df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
	Regression	1	588154612820.926	588154612820.926	0.5412732101	0.4719352788
	Residual	17	18472424334547.5	1086613196149.85
	Total	18	19060578947368.4
		Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Lower 95.0%	Upper 95.0%		Forecast
	Intercept	1622390.02521715	434119.743762019	3.7371947453	0.0016398933	706477.427183033	2538302.62325126	706477.427183033	2538302.62325126		Quarter	Advertising	Revenue	Forecast		Absolute Percent Error
	Advertising	7.9134211264	10.756129239	0.7357127225	0.4719352788	-14.7800278992	30.6068701519	-14.7800278992	30.6068701519		1	$30,000	$1,200,000	$   11,118,495
											2	$20,000	$880,000	$   8,586,201		875.70
											3	$15,000	$1,800,000	$   15,866,548		781.47
											4	$40,000	$1,050,000	$   9,931,482		845.86
	RESIDUAL OUTPUT										5	$10,000	$1,700,000	$   15,075,206		786.78
											6	$50,000	$350,000	$   4,392,087		1,154.88
	Observation	Predicted Y	Residuals								7	$5,000	$2,500,000	$   21,405,943		756.24
	1	1780658.44774447	-900658.447744466								8	$40,000	$760,000	$   7,636,590		904.81
	2	1741091.34211264	58908.6578873633								9	$20,000	$2,300,000	$   19,823,259		761.88
	3	1938926.87027178	-888926.870271785								10	$10,000	$1,000,000	$   9,535,811		853.58
	4	1701524.23648081	-1524.236480807								11	$60,000	$1,570,000	$   14,046,461		794.68
	5	2018061.08153544	-1668061.08153544								12	$5,000	$2,430,000	$   20,852,003		758.11
	6	1661957.13084898	838042.869151023								13	$35,000	$1,320,000	$   12,068,106		814.25
	7	1938926.87027178	-1178926.87027178								14	$15,000	$1,400,000	$   12,701,180		807.23
	8	1780658.44774447	519341.552255534								15	$70,000	$1,890,000	$   16,578,756		777.18
	9	1701524.23648081	-701524.236480807								16	$25,000	$3,200,000	$   26,945,338		742.04
	10	2097195.2927991	-527195.

Do problem XXXXXXXXXXSubmit one Excel file with your models and responses.62. The fileDownload P12_62.xlsxcontains data on a motel chain’s revenue and advertising.Use these data and multiple...

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