phys ch 4
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-The Function and Dysfunction of Heuristics
-Usually, the availability heuristic is a useful way to predict events. But under certain
circumstances, the availability heuristic can lead to e
ors.
-For example, if a rare event is highly memorable, it will readily come into your mind
even though it is unlikely to occur in the future. In turn, you are likely to overestimate the
probability that it will happen. Typical examples of these unlikely, but vivid events are
plane crashes and success in gambling. The availability heuristic explains why people are
often afraid of flying and one reason why they are more likely to continue gambling.
-Summary
-The availability heuristic can be a useful tool to help simplify our complex lives. But
under certain circumstances, it also has the power to mislead us.
-As you have learned in this activity, people do not always make logical judgments about
the probabilities of events. For example, we think that we can somehow beat the odds
when we gamble, even though we know logically that the odds are not in our favor. We
are also swayed by events that are easy to remember or are very distinctive. However,
although heuristics can lead us to make the wrong decision, they can also save us time
and mental energy. While they can sometimes lead to mistakes, taking mental shortcuts,
such as the availability heuristic, makes dealing with the complexities of the real world
more manageable.
SHORT QUESTIONS: 4-5 SENTENCES :
1. Do you think more people die from shark attacks or from falling airplane parts? You might be
surprised to learn that you are 30 times more likely to die from a falling airplane part than from a
shark attack. Using what you have learned about the availability heuristic, explain why most
people would tend to think they’re more likely to die in a shark attack than from a falling
airplane part.
2.You are the campaign manager for Ima Winner, who is running for mayor in your hometown.
Using the availability heuristic to guide a public relations and advertising campaign, what are
two things you can do to increase Ima’s chances of winning the election?
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