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Time Series Analysis The dataset you will analyse in this assignment represents the changes in the closing price of a share in ASX available (Please note that the dataset is composed of 144...

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Time Series Analysis
The dataset you will analyse in this assignment represents the changes in the closing price of a share in ASX available (Please note that the dataset is composed of 144 observations out of a possible 252 trading days in a year and all the points are collected in the same year and on consecutive trading days). You will work with following tasks:
· Find the best fitting model among the linear, quadratic, cosine, cyclical or seasonal trend models (covered in Module 2) by implementing the model building strategy.
· Give the predictions for the next 5 observations using the best model you find.
· Prepare a report that includes proper sections such as Introduction, Conclusion, Appendix and a chapter for the tasks. The structure of the report is up to you as long as it is a well-structured and neat report. The report expected here is not a short business report or not an essay. 
· 1. Present time series in an informative way, both graphically and with summary statistics.
· 2. Estimate model parameters and compare different models developed for the same dataset in terms of their estimation and prediction accuracy.
· 3. Prepare both oral and written reports to present results of time-series analyses.
Written Report format:
1. writing a report with the expected structure. Specifically, "Science Report"

Answered 1 days After Mar 25, 2022

Solution

Suraj answered on Mar 27 2022
98 Votes
Time Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis
Introduction:
In this project we are analyzing the data set represents the changes in the closing price of a share in ASX available. The data set consist of data for 144 days. This is a project based on the time-series analyses in statistics.
There are various time series models are available like linear trend, exponential, quadratic, cosine, cyclic trend and seasonal trend.
Aim:
The aim of this project is to analyze the pattern of the closing price of the shares of ASX and make predictions for the future values.
Analysis:
First of all, we will calculate the descriptive statistics for the closing price of the ASX shares. The descriptive statistics table is given as follows:
The average closing price in 144 days is $75.41 and the minimum value for a single day is $15.47 and the maximum value is $95.48 for a single day. 50% of the closing price for ASX are less than $81.25.
Now the next task is to visually analyze the pattern of the closing price. The time series plot is given as follows:
From the above graph, the trend is not looking linear also not cosine. There is no seasonal pattern and cyclic pattern observing in the data. Hence, it...
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