Topic: Modelling risk Value:60% Length:4,000 words maximum excluding references PART A 25% ...

Question

Topic: Modelling risk    Value:60%  Length:4,000 words maximum excluding references   PART A  25%  Theory Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen position:  'Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?'(Hint: Evaluate the terms as measurable - i.e. a number between 0 and 1)    The first task is a critical analysis of a statement regarding the key concepts of risk and risk analysis. This task is an exercise that is expected to evidence the sourcing of relevant reference material, critically analysing the key concepts of the reference and then applying the material to the tasks listed below. It requires the use of appropriate references to support work. The use of references that provide generic information without any critical analysis will be viewed unfavourably.                                          Work place Problem:  Safety and healthcare of end-of-life (dementia) and careworker ina aged care environment      PART B  35%  The second group of tasks relates to risk analysis of the workplace case problem selected in report. This assessment may be written in report style and use statistical tools such as tables, graphs, and descriptive techniques in your explanation (portfolio to key risk analysis and risk management concepts).    Workplace application Identify how work case problem would benefit if more reliable quantitative analysis and forecasts were available.   Research requires you to:  1. Collect as much relevant data about the work case problem as possible. Analyse the data using descriptive statistics (measures of probability, frequency and central tendency such as mean, mode, median and standard deviation) and then plot the data in appropriate graphical forms.  2. Assess the diagrams by determining the key characteristics of the data - i.e. summarise the patterns and skewness to interpret what these patterns are likely indicate about the data to date  3. Use one quantitative modelling forecasting techniques to develop forecasts from the data - for example naive, moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression    4. Explain your key findings from the quantitative analysis. In doing so, apply the predictions to your work case problem and determine what the consequences would be for your workplace.Under what circumstances are qualitative modelling techniques suitable for forecasting?     5. Explain how qualitative techniques could be applied to your chosen work case problem to improve future outcomes    Referencing: APA referencing  Criteria needed for the report          Theoretical analysis   This criterion is about   defining, describing and evaluating the theoretical concepts.   Specifically:   - the knowledge spectrum;   - discussing how to measure   risk;   - evaluation and justifying   where risk sits on that spectrum.         Clear definitions and   descriptions of the knowledge spectrum (using examples to aid reader   understanding). Multiple measurements of risk have been thoughtfully   investigated in detail. Presents a clear, logical, well-constructed and   well-articulated argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum   supported by accurate, thoughtful and well stated justifications and a wide   selection of academic literature. A highly insightful discussion supported   with relevant examples, evaluations and conclusions.             Application skills   This criterion is about:   linking theory to a context, explaining how it relates to your chosen   workplace case problem and making recommendations.   Specifically:   collecting and analysing the   descriptive statistics and plotting data;   - use a quantitative modelling   technique to forecast;   - explain key findings;   - discuss suitability of   qualitative modelling for forecasting.         The data collected is accurate,   relevant and useful. All of the relevant data regarding descriptive   statistics has been carefully and accurately examined in terms of the   measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode),   standard deviation and data distribution. The data has been graphed/plotted   elegantly and accurately with correct labelling. Key characteristics of the   graphs/plots have been identified and accompanied by an insightful and   thorough analysis and interpretation. An appropriate quantitative modelling   technique has been accurately identified, explained and the choice justified.   Forecasts have been well developed and explained. The predictions have been applied   to the workplace case problem along with perceptive discussion of how these   results could affect the business and future decisions. Qualitative   techniques have been explained and thoughtfully considered with a   recommendation on an appropriate and very useful technique. The application   of a qualitative modelling technique has been carefully explored.             Communication Skills   This is about the presentation   of the work including: structure, format, grammar, including images         Free of spelling   and grammatical errors. Structure and format were clear, logical and   consistent. Sentences were well constructed. Exceptional use of diagrams,   images and tables, clearly relevant, explained and insightful links made.             Referencing Skills   This criterion is about the   application of APA 6th referencing and the depth of research         Both the in text   and end reference list are exemplary in terms of style and application of APA   6th. An exceptional number of relevant sources were applied in a highly   academic manner demonstrating extensive research.          Report style guidelines to the report:    Begin with an executive      summary followed by a table of contents. An introduction is then written      before the main body of your report. The end report should include a      conclusion. The report should finish with references (not a bibliography)      followed by any appendices you may have used;  Headings and sub-headings      should be used;  Be consistent in your layout      and the use of font sizes and spacing between paragraphs;  The font should be between XXXXXXXXXX12pt size and be an open-faced type such as Arial or Calibri;  The line spacing should be XXXXXXXXXX;  Left-justify the text

Amar · Accepted Answer

Running Header: Modelling Risk 			1
Modelling Risk 			2
Modelling Risk
Executive Summary
The risks one faces as society is continue to become increasingly much more intricate on account of the interconnected range concerning causal set of factors, chiefly resulting from the human action as well as inventions. The overall Interdependencies amongst the various elements like the built environments, communication, transport, as well as lifeline utilities could lead to cascading form of failures which shall amplify overall consequences pertaining to single human induced / natural risk event or else range of circumstances that are interrelated. The objective of this report is to undertake a theoretical evaluation with respect to “'Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?'” and then present risk assessment with respect to specific risk management case.
Contents
Executive Summary	2
Introduction	4
Part A – Theory	4
Part B – Work Place Problem: Safety and Healthcare of End-of-life (Dementia) & Care-worker in Aged Care Environment	8
Conclusion	13
References	14
Introduction
The risks one faces as society is continue to become increasingly much more intricate on account of the interconnected range concerning causal set of factors, chiefly resulting from the human action as well as inventions. The overall Interdependencies amongst the various elements like the built environments, communication, transport, as well as lifeline utilities could lead to cascading form of failures which shall amplify overall consequences pertaining to single human induced / natural risk event or else range of circumstances that are interrelated. These risks usually possess no clear set of boundaries. The overall nature as well as levels of the risks shall be harder in defining as well as varied perspectives of stakeholder with none of them shall be wrong or else right to the verifiable extent making suitable decisions or else much more challenging.
The objective of this report is to undertake a theoretical evaluation with respect to “'Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?'” and then undertake risk assessment with respect to specific risk management case.
Part A – Theory
One is faced with varied and numerous decisions on a day to day basis such that one is generally required to undertake them by not having any definite set of knowledge with respect to the ensuing consequences (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014). The overall levels of knowledge which one possesses with respect to decisions one needs to undertake have significant levels of influences over the end choices. If one analyses the overall spectrum concerning knowledge, we shall note that there seems to be two end of extremes, that is, the perfect knowledge on one end and the uncertainty in the other end (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014). The same beckons a question in terms of where does the risk shall lie within the broad spectrum starting from perfect knowledge until uncertainty. For the purposes of addressing the said question, this section shall undertake the evaluation as well as the discussion of the meanings concerning the terms like uncertainty, risk, as well as knowledge. After developing clear and comprehensive levels of understanding with respect to these terms, the identified question in terms of risk shall be addressed at the detailed level (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014).
The overall spectrum concerning knowledge shall be classified amongst two of the extremes concerning perfect knowledge as well as uncertainty (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014). For the purposes of understanding risk as well as the ways the same shall be different in terms of uncertainty, one shall be required in understanding the overall meanings concerning the said terms (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014). The terms concerning risk as well as uncertainty shall be employed in an interchangeable manner across day to day conversations as well as the same makes the same challenging for understanding the respective differences (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014). In the historical context, various economists had undertaken the mistake for making these same mistakes of employing these terms in a loose manner. Various examples for the same and economists of repute failed to make any form of sharper distinctions amongst two terms, that is, risk as well as uncertainty (Aven & Cox, 2016; Bjerga & Aven, 2016; Aven & Zio, 2014).
If referring to the literal meaning, one shall note that risk can be stated to be possibility concerning injury or else loss wherein the uncertainty shall be stated to be something which can be stated in being indeterminable or else not known without any of the doubt (Skinner et al., 2014; Coaffee & Lee, 2016; Robert & Therond, 2014). Thus, with respect to day to day usage, one shall note that risk shall refer to the positive form of probability concerning the negative event in happening and uncertainty shall not actually really imply the value judgment (Skinner et al., 2014; Coaffee & Lee, 2016; Robert & Therond, 2014). Though it has to be noted that both of the terms shall be similar by their very nature as well as concern to the situations wherein we shall not be able to foresee completely the future (Skinner et al., 2014; Coaffee & Lee, 2016; Robert & Therond, 2014). 
If one shall undertake the analysis of the risk with respect to economics as well as technology, one shall note that the same is to be expressed in being quantifiable form of value concerning the events which shall be accompanied by way of negative form of consequence (Skinner et al., 2014; Coaffee & Lee, 2016; Robert & Therond, 2014). The same shall be measured in being both probabilities concerning the occurring of event as well as overall gravity concerning the consequences. In taking suitable example in this context, it has to be note that relevant set of probability pertaining to bearing failing across the five year period shall be 0.001 per cent. The overall consequences concerning the failing pertaining to bearing shall result in engine for stopping to function. The two shall combine to the single value for indicating risk (Skinner et al., 2014; Coaffee & Lee, 2016; Robert & Therond, 2014). 
In the similar manner, within the management context, overall risks that are affiliated with respect to decision shall be overall possibilities that said outcomes shall be suitably varied from the expectations (Skinner et al., 2014; Coaffee & Lee, 2016; Robert & Therond, 2014). In the similar manner, if one is planning to undertake something,

Topic: Modelling risk Value:6 0% Length:4,000 words maximum excluding references PART A 25% Theory Please evaluate the following question. Your evaluation requires you to prepare and defend a chosen...

Solution

Answer To This Question Is Available To Download

Related Questions & Answers

Submit New Assignment

Theoretical analysis This criterion is about defining, describing and evaluating the theoretical concepts. Specifically: - the knowledge spectrum; - discussing how to measure risk; - evaluation and justifying where risk sits on that spectrum.	Clear definitions and descriptions of the knowledge spectrum (using examples to aid reader understanding). Multiple measurements of risk have been thoughtfully investigated in detail. Presents a clear, logical, well-constructed and well-articulated argument of the position of risk on the knowledge spectrum supported by accurate, thoughtful and well stated justifications and a wide selection of academic literature. A highly insightful discussion supported with relevant examples, evaluations and conclusions.
Application skills This criterion is about: linking theory to a context, explaining how it relates to your chosen workplace case problem and making recommendations. Specifically: collecting and analysing the descriptive statistics and plotting data; - use a quantitative modelling technique to forecast; - explain key findings; - discuss suitability of qualitative modelling for forecasting.	The data collected is accurate, relevant and useful. All of the relevant data regarding descriptive statistics has been carefully and accurately examined in terms of the measures of probability, frequency, central tendency (mean, median and mode), standard deviation and data distribution. The data has been graphed/plotted elegantly and accurately with correct labelling. Key characteristics of the graphs/plots have been identified and accompanied by an insightful and thorough analysis and interpretation. An appropriate quantitative modelling technique has been accurately identified, explained and the choice justified. Forecasts have been well developed and explained. The predictions have been applied to the workplace case problem along with perceptive discussion of how these results could affect the business and future decisions. Qualitative techniques have been explained and thoughtfully considered with a recommendation on an appropriate and very useful technique. The application of a qualitative modelling technique has been carefully explored.
Communication Skills This is about the presentation of the work including: structure, format, grammar, including images	Free of spelling and grammatical errors. Structure and format were clear, logical and consistent. Sentences were well constructed. Exceptional use of diagrams, images and tables, clearly relevant, explained and insightful links made.
Referencing Skills This criterion is about the application of APA 6th referencing and the depth of research	Both the in text and end reference list are exemplary in terms of style and application of APA 6th. An exceptional number of relevant sources were applied in a highly academic manner demonstrating extensive research.