Project 1
Firm: JP Morgan Chase
1).
Plotted Prices for JPM:
The first graph here shows the daily prices of the JP Morgan stock from January 2nd, 2019 to January 20th, 2021. Looking at this graph, we can see a huge decline in the stock price going from the beginning of Fe
uary 2020 to the beginning of May 2020. This was obviously due to the COVID-19 pandemic that forced a recession at this time. The JP Morgan stock price has gone up since, and is reaching new highs in today’s market.
Plotted Returns for JPM:
This graph shows JP Morgan stock returns beginning in January of 2019 all the way to January of 2021. The stock returns go up and down and are quite volatile. The biggest instance of this volatility occurs at the same time as the stock prices went down, when the COVID-19 pandemic first began in Fe
uary of 2020.
Confidence Interval for JPM 2020:
95%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
99%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
Confidence Interval for JPM 2019:
95%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
99%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
· For both 2019 and 2020, JPM has a confidence interval including 0, meaning that this is a significant variable for testing
T-statistic for JPM 2020 = XXXXXXXXXX
· This t-statistic shows that we are very close to accepting the null hypothesis that the mean for JPM 2020 is 0.
T-statistic for JPM 2019 = XXXXXXXXXX
· Because this t-statistic is a relatively
Confidence Interval for S&P XXXXXXXXXX:
95%: 5.747738e XXXXXXXXXX013632e-03
99%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
T-statistic for S&P XXXXXXXXXX = XXXXXXXXXX
One tail and two tail tests for S&P 500 in 2019:
XXXXXXXXXXalpha.one.tailed alpha.two.tailed XXXXXXXXXXCV
[1,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX284933
[2,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX650947
[3,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX969460
[4,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX341296
[5,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX595558
[6,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX123018
· Probability here is 3.9%, which means we cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Confidence Interval for S&P 500 in 2020:
95%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
99%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
T-statistic for S&P XXXXXXXXXX = XXXXXXXXXX
· We are 95% confident that the mean for the S&P XXXXXXXXXXis between XXXXXXXXXXand XXXXXXXXXXand 99% confident that the mean is between XXXXXXXXXXand XXXXXXXXXXEven though this t-statistic is really low, we are still 99% confident that the mean is not 0 and therefore, we can reject the null hypothesis.
One tail and two tail tests for S&P 500 in 2020:
alpha.one.tailed alpha.two.tailed XXXXXXXXXXCV
[1,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[2,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[3,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[4,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[5,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[6,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
One tail and two tailed tests for JPM profits in 2020:
alpha.one.tailed alpha.two.tailed XXXXXXXXXXCV
[1,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[2,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[3,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[4,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[5,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[6,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
Probability is 92%, this means that we cannot reject that JP Morgan’s mean is equal to zero.
One tail and two tailed tests for JPM profit in 2019:
alpha.one.tailed alpha.two.tailed XXXXXXXXXXCV
[1,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[2,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[3,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[4,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[5,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
[6,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
Probability is 5.8%, this means that we can reject that JP Morgan’s mean is equal to zero
Confidence Intervals for Amazon:
95%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
99%: XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
T-statistic for Amazon = XXXXXXXXXX
· We are 95% confident that the mean for Amazon is between XXXXXXXXXXand XXXXXXXXXXand 99% confident that the mean is between XXXXXXXXXXand XXXXXXXXXXThe t-statistic tells us that we probably cannot reject the null hypothesis that the mean is equal to 0.
One tail and two tailed tests for Amazon
XXXXXXXXXXalpha.one.tailed XXXXXXXXXXalpha.two.tailed XXXXXXXXXXCV
[1,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX.284920
[2,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX.650923
[3,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX.969422
[4,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX.341236
[5,] XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX.595479
[6,] XXXXXXXXXX