eturns
US Stock Bond index Precious metal US stock Bond index Precious metal
Date Adj Close Adj Close Adj Close return return return
1/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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8/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
9/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
10/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX 8.98126 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
3/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX 9.06668 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/13 33.5919 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/13 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
3/1/13 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
4/1/13 XXXXXXXXXX 9.50392 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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12/1/13 XXXXXXXXXX 9.20435 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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6/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
8/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX 9.65197 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX 9.86338 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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8/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
9/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
10/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX 9.83759 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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6/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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9/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
10/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX 9.98514 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
3/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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12/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
isk partiy strategy
Date US Stock Bond index Precious metal
1/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
3/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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7/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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10/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX rolling past 12 month volatility weight of asset class based on rolling past 12 month volatility
12/1/10 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX US stock bond Precious metal US stock bond Precious metal Portfolio Return
1/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX mean stdev risk free rate sharpe ratio
2/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 2011 to 2018 performance 0%
3/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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5/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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11/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
other strategies
Asset class return Equal Weight startegy 35% Bond 55% Stock 10% Metal Strategy Markowitz mean variance optimization
Date US Stock Bond index Precious metal weights Portfolio Return average return XXXXXXXXXX weights Portfolio Return average return weights Portfolio Return average return
return return return US Stock XXXXXXXXXX Standard deviation XXXXXXXXXX US Stock Standard deviation US Stock Standard deviation
1/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX Bond index XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX Sharpe Ratio XXXXXXXXXX Bond index Sharpe Ratio Bond index Sharpe Ratio
2/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX Precious metal XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX Precious metal Precious metal
3/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
4/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
5/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
6/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
8/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
9/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
10/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/11 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
3/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
4/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
5/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 0 XXXXXXXXXX
6/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
8/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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10/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/13 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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5/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
6/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 0 XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX 0 XXXXXXXXXX
8/1/14 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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8/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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10/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/15 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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11/1/16 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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1/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
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3/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
4/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
5/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
6/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
8/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
9/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
10/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
12/1/17 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
1/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
2/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
3/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
4/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
5/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
6/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
7/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
8/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
9/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
10/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
11/1/18 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX
Project for Chapter 2
Due date: Sunday June 23th, 11:45 p.m.
Method of submission: email the excel sheet with your name to XXXXXXXXXX
Purpose of the project
The purpose of this project is to compare various asset allocation strategies and measure their effectiveness. We are going to invest in three asset classes: US government bonds, US stocks, and precious metals/commodities. We are going to compare the following strategies: equal weights, 35% bond/55% US stocks/10% precious metal, Markowitz mean variance optimization, and risk parity.
Our period of interest is from 1/1/2011 to 12/31/2018 where we are going to compare the performance of those four strategies. In addition, for Markowitz mean variance optimization, we are going to use data from 1/1/2003 to 12/31/2010 to determine the weights (which we already did last project); and for risk parity strategy, we are going to use a rolling weights approach and will need 1/1/2010 to 12/31/2010 to determine the initial weights.
We are going to use the following mutual funds as proxies for each asset classes: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) for stocks, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX) for bonds, and Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund Investor Shares (VGPMX)[footnoteRef:1] as proxy for precious metals. [1: Vanguard Global Capital Cycles Fund Investor Shares was previously known as Vanguard Precious Metal and Mining, it changed its name in 2018.]
Section I: Decide weights and return using risk parity approach
Instead of using the full equation to determine the weights, we are going to use the simple equation to figure out the weight for each asset class (which assumes covariance is the same across asset classes):
To use the equation, we will need to first decide what is the standard deviation for each asset class. Typically the industry uses a dynamic approach to determine the standard deviation and weights, which simply means re-calculating the standard deviation each month based on a pre-determine number of periods. For example, in our project we are going to dynamically adjust based on a 12 month rolling period standard deviation; so to determine the weight be used for stocks in January 2011, we are going to use the standard deviation based on returns from January 2010 to December 2010; to determine the weight for Fe
uary 2011, we are going to use standard deviation based on returns from Fe
uary 2010 to January XXXXXXXXXXWe will keep doing this to decide the weights each month for the whole period.
A. Decide the asset classes return from 1/1/2010 to 12/31/2018
Under “returns” tab, similar to last project, download the price for each asset classes using the tickers and calculate the monthly returns from 1/1/2010 to 12/31/2018 using the Adjusted price (again I have done this for stocks and bonds, you only need to do this for VGPMX).
The initial 12 months from 1/1/2010 to 12/31/2010 will be used to calculate the weights in the first month of 1/1/2011 to 12/31/2018 period (which is the test period). Then we are going to