PUBH6006 Assessment 3: Epidemic Waves
Background
World Health Organization (WHO) officially announced COVID-19 out
eak as a global pandemic on 11 March 2020 to reflect the global crisis of 118,000 confirmed cases and 4,291 death caused by coronavirus among 114 countries (World Health Organization, 2020c). The world has witnessed the dramatic and historical loss of human lives in the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu in 1920s.
There were more than 45 million infected cases and approximately 1.1 million deaths caused by COVID-19 at the end of October 2020 (Figure 1). The data
eakdown by WHO region demonstrated a steep upward trend in America and Europe regions (Figure 2 and Figure 3). The second wave in Europe with a mountain of daily new cases and deaths is cu
ently a global concern in relation to their public health systems and emergency response plans, particularly Italy, France, Spain, and the UK.
Source: World Health Organization (2020b)
Figure 1: Global confirmed cases and death of COVID-19 reported to WHO as of 31 October 2020
Source: World Health Organization (2020b)
Figure 2: The daily change of COVID-19 confirmed cases by WHO region as of 31 October 2020
Source: World Health Organization (2020b)
Figure 3 The daily change of deaths caused by COVID-19 by WHO region as of 31 October 2020
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PUBH6006 Assessment 3: Ι Created on 31 October 2020
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Scenario: Epidemic Waves
Italy had become a new epicentre of COVID-19 pandemic in March when more than 53,000 infected cases and over 4800 dead were recorded. The highest number of new cases of 6,557 was reported on 21 March 2020. A month later Italy reported a total of 108, 257 active cases as the peak of their first wave of COVID- 19 pandemic (National Civil Protection Service, XXXXXXXXXXThe Italian government implemented various measures to flight with the virus and successfully flattening the curve in late May 2020 (Alicandro, Remuzzi, & La Vecchia, 2020).
Unfortunately, the second wave of the virus pandemic occu
ed in the late August where the government reported more than 1000 cases on new cases on 23 August 2020 and the figure was double on 1 October 2020 (Ministry of Health, 2020b). Figure 4 presents the cu
ent situation of Italy reported by WHO.
The Italian government has launched an aggressive emergency response to the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. The Prevention of and Response to COVID-19: Evolution of the Strategy and Planning in the Transmission Phase for the Autumn-Winter period has been developed and implemented in the emergency response plan to deal with the foreseen worsening situation in the coming Autumn and Winter (Ministry of Health, 2020a).
Source: World Health Organization (2020a)
Figure 4: Total COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths reported in Italy as of 31 October 2020
Italy is not only facing the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing finance hardship since the last decade, privatisation, and shortage of human and technical resources are also real and tough challenges to the Italians (Armocida, Formenti, Ussai, Palestra, & Missoni, 2020).
References
Alicandro, G., Remuzzi, G., & La Vecchia, C XXXXXXXXXXItaly's first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has ended: no excess mortality in May, 2020. The Lancet, XXXXXXXXXX), e27-e28.
Armocida, B., Formenti, B., Ussai, S., Palestra, F., & Missoni, E XXXXXXXXXXThe Italian health system and the COVID-19 challenge. The Lancet Public Health, 5(5), e253.
Ministry of Health. (2020a). Covid-19 weekly monitoring, report of October XXXXXXXXXXRetrieved from http:
www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioNotizieNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=engl ish&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=5145
Ministry of Health. (2020b). Italy CoVID-19 Situation Map, October 2020. Retrieved from http:
opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#
0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38 d4138b1
National Civil Protection Service XXXXXXXXXXItaliy COVID-19 Situation Map, April 2020. Retrieved from http:
opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#
0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38 d4138b1
World Health Organization. (2020a). WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard, Itaty, October 2020. Retrieved from https:
covid19.who.int
egion/euro/country/it
World Health Organization. (2020b). WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard, October 2020.
Retrieved from https:
covid19.who.int
World Health Organization. (2020c). WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media
iefing on COVID XXXXXXXXXXMarch 2020. Retrieved from https:
www.who.int/director- general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-
iefing-on-covid-19--
-11-march-2020
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Key Focus:
Public health emergency: The second wave of COVID 19 in
Italy
Italian healthcare system, community, culture,
ehaviou
, and
population
Community-led emergency
esponse
Monitoring and surveillance plan
)
Instructions
The word count for the assignment is 1500 words.Read the scenario of public health emergency on page 1-2. Develop a plan and recommendation draw from your critical analysis and applying theory into practice.
1. Seek further information to provide an overview of the given public health emergency a
ief general information of the setting and health concerns.
2. Using appropriate data to evaluate the situation of the given public health emergency.
3. Explain and predict the given public health emergency by applying community health concepts and behaviour model.
4. Consider approach(s) to health emergency preparedness and response (either top-down or bottom-up or both approaches) with adequate rationales.
5. Propose your recommendation for community-led emergency response developed from the context of emergency and data from relevant surveillance. Integrate your critical thinking with existing evidence such as research or implemented programs. Discuss the potential stakeholders of this emergency response plan.
6. Propose your recommendation for monitoring and surveillance plan based on the scenario
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Please see the template below for more details and guidance on how to address this assessment. You should consider the proportion of each section based on weight of marks (see the template)
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Assessment 3 Template
Please use this template to develop your assignment 3
Introduction
(Title of your assignment)
Assessment 3: PUBH6006: Student name , Student ID
Provide a short introduction which gives the reader an overview of the whole assignment
Introduce a
ief information of the public health emergency in general information. (you will provide details of the given emergency public health in the main body not in the introduction). Explain that your report will propose a recommendation for emergency response plan and recommendation for the given public health emergency.
(Introduction should not longer than half a page)
Context of the public health emergency (30% of this assessment)
Provide an overview of the given public health emergency: a
ief general information of the scenario setting.
Use appropriate data and information derived from the disease surveillance to evaluate the situation of emergency in the scenario.
Apply community health concepts and Health Belief Model to explain and predict the public health emergency in the scenario. What could be influence of the second wave and what could be the trend of this situation based on behaviours of community and individuals in the scenario.
Make sure you support all your points with evidence from appropriate sources and add in-text citation
Approach to health emergency preparedness and response (25% of this assessment)
Choose approach(s) to health emergency preparedness and response (either top-down or bottom-up or both approaches) for the scenario with adequate rationales.
Make sure you support all your points with evidence from appropriate sources and add in-text citation
Community-led emergency response (35% of this assessment)
Propose your recommendation for community-led emergency response developed from the context of emergency, and support data from relevant surveillance combined with your ideas and existing evidence such as research or implemented programs. Discuss the potential stakeholders.
Propose your recommendation for monitoring and surveillance plan. The recommendations should be relevant to the given situation.
Make sure you support all your points with evidence from appropriate sources and add in-text citation
Conclusion
In a short paragraph, provide a useful overall summary of your assignment for the reader. Do not introduce any new information/ideas.