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# PFB

Answered Same Day Jul 28, 2021

## Solution

Gajula Nagasai answered on Aug 30 2021
Q-1)
U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yields at week's end (n= 52 weeks)
Week
Yield
Week
Yield
Week
Yield
Week
Yield
02.04.2004
4.25
02.07.2004
4.93
01.10.2004
4.4
31.12.2004
4.59
09.04.2004
4.51
09.07.2004
4.79
08.10.2004
4.5
07.01.2005
4.58
16.04.2004
4.66
16.07.2004
4.77
15.10.2004
4.38
14.01.2005
4.55
23.04.2004
4.73
23.07.2004
4.76
22.10.2004
4.33
21.01.2005
4.49
30.04.2004
4.79
30.07.2004
4.86
29.10.2004
4.35
28.01.2005
4.49
07.05.2004
4.92
06.08.2004
4.71
05.11.2004
4.42
04.02.2005
4.44
14.05.2004
5.11
13.08.2004
4.58
12.11.2004
4.52
11.02.2005
4.36
21.05.2004
5.04
20.08.2004
4.53
19.11.2004
4.47
18.02.2005
4.46
28.05.2004
4.98
27.08.2004
4.55
26.11.2004
4.5
25.02.2005
4.58
04.06.2004
5.04
03.09.2004
4.49
03.12.2004
4.65
04.03.2005
4.67
11.06.2004
5.1
10.09.2004
4.51
10.12.2004
4.49
11.03.2005
4.75
18.06.2004
5.05
17.09.2004
4.44
17.12.2004
4.46
18.03.2005
4.81
25.06.2004
4.99
24.09.2004
4.34
24.12.2004
4.51
25.03.2005
4.89
(a-1) Select an Excel line graph of the following bond yield data.
Ans. From the above four plots, Yield C is the co
ect plot for the above data.
(a-2) Describe the pattern. Is there a consistent trend?
Ans.
From the above time series data and from above I chart there is fluctuations in data cyclically and the trend is consistently increasing and consistently decreasing.
(a-3) Perform exponential smoothing with ï„ƒ=0.20. Use both methods A and B to initialize the forecast. Record the statistics of fit. (Round the Mean square e
or to 3 decimal places, percent values to 1 decimal place and Forecast to 2 decimal places)
Ans.

ï„ƒ = 0.20
Mean squared e
o
0.028
Mean absolute percent e
o
2.9
Forecast for period 53
4.67
The above table explains that at ï„ƒ=0.20, the Mean squared e
or is 0.028, Mean absolute percent e
or is 2.9% and the Forecasted value for 53rd period is 4.67.
(a-4) Do the smoothing again with ï„ƒ=0.10 and with ï„ƒ=0.30, recording the statistics of fit. (Round the Mean squared e
or to 3 decimal places and percent values to 1 decimal place)
Ans.

ï„ƒ=0.10
ï„ƒ=0.30
Mean squared e
o
0.039
0.021
Mean absolute percent e
o
3.5
2.6
The above table explains that at ï„ƒ=0.10, the Mean squared e
or is 0.039, Mean absolute percent e
or is 3.5% and at ï„ƒ=0.30, the Mean squared e
or is 0.021, Mean absolute percent e
or is 2.6%.
Q2)
U. S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1984-2016
Yea
Planes
Yea
Planes
Yea
Planes
Yea
Planes
1984
2431
1992
941
2000
2816
2008
3079
1985
2029
1993
964
2001
2634
2009
1585
1986
1495
1994
928
2002
2207
2010
1334
1987
1085
1995
1077
2003
2137
2011
1323
1988
1212
1996
1115
2004
2355
2012
1516
1989
1535
1997
1549
2005
2857
2013
1615
1990
1144
1998
2200
2006
3147
2014
1631
1991
1021
1999
2504
2007
3279
2015
1592
(a) Plot the...
SOLUTION.PDF