Our confidence in a prediction system depends in part on how well we feel we understand the...

Question

Our confidence in a prediction system depends in part on how well we feel we understand the attributes involved. After how many successful predictions would you consider the following validated?

i. a mathematical model to predict the return time of Halley's comet to the nearest hour;

ii. a timetable for a new air service between London and Paris;

iii. a system that predicts the outcome of the spinning of a roulette wheel;

iv. a chart showing how long a bricklayer will take to erect a wall of a given area.

Robert · Accepted Answer

i. A mathematical model to predict the return time of Halley's comet to the nearest hour would need to be accurate for at least one return of the comet in order to be considered validated. The more accurate the predictions, the more confidence there would be in the model. The model would need to take into account the orbital parameters of the comet and the effects of gravity from the sun and other planets.
 
ii.

Our confidence in a prediction system depends in part on how well we feel we understand the attributes involved. After how many successful predictions would you consider the following validated? i. a...

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