I am managing the Chicago Cubs. Suppose there is a runner on first base with nobody out and we want to determine whether we should bunt. Assume that a bunt will yield one of two results: (1) With probability .80, the bunt will be successful, in which case the batter is out and the runner on first base advances to second base. (2) With probability .20 the bunt is unsuccessful and the runner on first base is out trying to advance to second base and the batter is safe at first base.
The expected number of runs that the Cubs will score in an inning in various situations is given in Table
On-Base
Number
Expected Number
Situation
of Outs
of Runs
Runner on first
0
0.813
1
0.498
Runner on second
0.671
1.194
No base runners
0.243
a If our goal is to maximize the expected number of runs scored in an inning, should we bunt? Despite this answer, why do you think teams bunt?
b If we are considering stealing second base with nobody out, what chance of success is needed for stealing second to be an optimal decision?
Already registered? Login
Not Account? Sign up
Enter your email address to reset your password
Back to Login? Click here