STAT157 HW 3 Jan 31, 2023 Due Tuesday, February 7 at 11:59pm Deliberate Practice: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting Expected completion time: 60 minutes For each of the following time series,...

STAT157 HW 3
Jan 31, 2023
Due Tuesday, Fe
uary 7 at 11:59pm
Deliberate Practice: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
Expected completion time: 60 minutes
For each of the following time series, estimate the value of the next few points without looking
things up, then look at your answers and report your relative e
ors. Try to be accurate, even if
you don’t use a zeroth/first order forecast for each question. Just write down your answer and
elative e
or for each question (no need to show work). When you have answered all the questions,
write 1-2 paragraphs summarizing which strategies worked well and which strategies worked poorly.
1. Energy usage until January 30, 2023
• To find the graph, go to this link, in “Chart options” and “Date Range Type” select
“Custom”, and in “Date Range” enter “01/01/ XXXXXXXXXX/31/2023”.
• Predict energy usage on Feb 6 at 11am SF time.
2. Number of full-time Facebook employees until 2016
• Predict the number of full-time employees in 2018, and 2020.
3. Total adult co
ectional population until 2010
1
https:
www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonito
expanded-view/electric_overview/US48/US48/ElectricityOverview-2/edit
• Predict the adult co
ectional population in 2014 and 2018.
4. World GDP until 1950
• Link to the graph.
• Predict World GDP in 1960, 1970, and 1990.
5. TSA passenger throughput numbers until Jan 30, 2022
• This graph uses the January 2022 numbers from here.
2
https:
ourworldindata.org/graphe
world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia?time=1..1950
https:
www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput
• Predict the passenger throughput number for Feb 7.
6. Per capita C02 emissions in US until 2010
• Link to the graph.
• Predict the US per capita C02 emissions in 2015, 2025, and 2030.
7. Military expenditure as a percent of GDP until 2012
• Link to the graph.
• Predict military expenditure as a percent of GDP in 2015, 2018, and 2019.
8. Worldwide total fertility rate until 1978
• Link to the graph.
• Predict the worldwide total fertility rate in 1988, 1998, and 2003.
9. US Child mortality rate until 1955
• Link to the graph.
• Predict the child mortality rate in 1960, 1990, and 2010.
On Gradescope, for each of the 9 questions, submit your estimates, relative e
ors. Then, include
1-2 paragraphs of reasoning on which strategies worked well and which strategies didn’t. Please
also submit the time it took to complete this exercise.
Deliberate Practice: Estimation and Cali
ation
Expected completion time: 45 minutes
For each of the following questions, estimate an inclusive 80% confidence interval for the answe
without looking things up. For each quantity, we provided one link with a reasonable-seeming
answer. We recommend spending around 5-10 minutes on each estimation question. Write down
your reasoning for one of the questions.
1. How many employment-based Green Card applications did US Citizenship and Immigration
Services process in 2021? Note that the question is about the number of applications processed,
not approved. Link to Answe
2. How many acres of US land were burnt by wildfires in 2020? Link to Answe
3. How many records have the Beatles sold, in terms of worldwide certified (not claimed) sales,
as reported by Wikipedia? Records include singles and full-length albums. Link to Answe
4. How many metric tons of crude oil were produced worldwide in 2020? Link to Answe
On Gradescope, submit your estimate for each of the 4 questions, with your reasoning for one of
the questions. Please also submit the time it took to complete this exercise.
3
https:
ourworldindata.org/graphe
co-emissions-per-capita?tab=chart&time= XXXXXXXXXX&country=~USA
https:
ourworldindata.org/graphe
military-expenditure-share-gdp-sipri?time=earliest..2012&country=~USA
https:
ourworldindata.org/graphe
children-per-woman-UN?tab=chart&time= XXXXXXXXXX
https:
ourworldindata.org/graphe
child-mortality?time=earliest..1955&country=~USA
https:
www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/uscis-announces-fy-2021-accomplishments
https:
sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_music_artists#250_million_or_more_records
https:
www.statista.com/statistics/265229/global-oil-production-in-million-metric-tons/#:~:text=In$%$202020$%$2C$%$20global$%$20crude$%$20oil,about$%$204.2$%$20billion$%$20metric$%$20tons
Deliberate Practice: Reference Classes
Expected completion time: 60 minutes
For the following questions, describe 3 reference classes you would use to answer it. To do this,
you can look up information about the reference classes, but not the answer itself. For at least 1
and at most 2 of the 4 questions below, use a large language model (such as ChatGPT) to help you
ainstorm ideas for reference classes. You can find links to different large language models below:
• ChatGPT
• Other GPT models (for example, you can try text-davinci-003 or davinci)
• GPT-J 6B and GPT-NeoX 20B (smaller, open-source models)
Once you have come up with reference classes for all of the questions, look up the answers, and
discuss which types of reference classes tended to work well, which worked poorly, and modifications
you would make in the future.
1. How much did the movie Ha
y Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 gross worldwide?
Link to Answe
2. A diplomatic boycott of a competition is when a country does not send high-ranking officials
to attend the competition as official representatives, but still sends athletes. How many
countries issued a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in China by January 31?
Link to Answe
3. What was Delta Air Lines’ operating revenue in 2020? Link to Answe
4. How many years were there between the beginning and end of the construction of the Sydney
Opera House? Link to Answe
On Gradescope, submit your reference classes for each of the 4 questions. Then, also include 1-2
paragraphs total of discussion on which kinds of reference classes worked and which didn’t. Please
also submit the time it took to complete this exercise.
Predictions
Expected completion time: 60 minutes
Register the following predictions. You can submit them by going to https:
docs.google.
com/forms/d/1Gja6hcs9jyDEE1sg1Z11eNskyIDaCpiW7wO9BouB4DM/edit and following the form’s
instructions. For these predictions, (and all predictions about the future throughout this class), we
encourage you to use external sources – by googling things, reading news articles, talking to friends
who follow politics or music stats, etc.
4
https:
chat.openai.com
https:
platform.openai.com/playground
https:
textsynth.com/playground.html
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ha
y_Potter_and_the_Deathly_Hallows_%E2%80%93_Part_2#Box_office
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Diplomatic_boycotts
https:
www.investopedia.com/terms/o/operating-revenue.asp
https:
ir.delta.com/news/news-details/2021/Delta-Air-Lines-Announces-December-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2020-Financial-Results/default.aspx
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Opera_House#/media/File:Sydney_Australia._ XXXXXXXXXXjpg
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Opera_House#/media/File:Sydney_Australia._ XXXXXXXXXXjpg
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Opera_House
https:
docs.google.com/forms/d/1Gja6hcs9jyDEE1sg1Z11eNskyIDaCpiW7wO9BouB4DM/edit
https:
docs.google.com/forms/d/1Gja6hcs9jyDEE1sg1Z11eNskyIDaCpiW7wO9BouB4DM/edit
0. Pick the same website, application, or software you chose last week, and predict how much
time you will spend on it between 12:00am Tuesday Fe
uary 7th and 11:59pm Sunday
Fe
uary 12th., as measured by your time-tracking app.
1. Will You be among the Top 5 Netflix Shows for the week of Fe
uary 6 - Fe
uary 12,
according to the Top Ten Netflix TV Shows ranking (English category)?
2. How many three-pointers will Steph Cu
y attempt in the Fe
uary 11th NBA game between
the Golden State Wa
iors and the Los Angeles Lakers?
3. In the January 2023 Monthly Treasury Statement, what will be the total value of gross outlays
going to the Department of Defense - Military Programs?
For each question, submit an inclusive 80% confidence interval (or a probability for question 1),
as well as an explanation of your reasoning ( 1-2 paragraphs). Please include a copy of you
google form responses with your Gradescope submission. On Gradescope, please also
submit the time it took to complete this exercise.
5
https:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_(TV_series)
https:
top10.netflix.com/tv
https:
fiscal.treasury.gov
eports-statements/mts/