CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 Deficits or Surpluses (Percentage of GDP) 4 2 Actual Projected 0 CBO’s Baseline Alternative Projection -2 Fiscal Scenario -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX The Unemployment Rate (Percent) 12 Actual Projected 10 8 6 4 2 0 XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX AUGUST 2012Notes Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in describing the economic outlook are calendar years; other years are federal fiscal years (which run from October 1 to September 30). Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. The figures in Chapter 2 use white vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. (A recession extends from the peak of a business cycle to its trough.) CBO initially completed its economic forecast in early July. As such, the forecast described in this report does not reflect any other developments since then, including the annual revision to the national income and product accounts, which were released by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27. In Chapter 2, only figures and discussions of recent events are consistent with the revised data. The revisions to the national income and product accounts are unlikely to have a major effect on CBO’s projections. Supplemental data for this analysis are available on CBO’s Web site (www.cbo.gov). CBO Pub. No. 4577Contents Summary iii The Budget Outlook 1 The Budget Deficit, Revenues, and Outlays in 2012 3 1 CBO’s Baseline Budget Projections for 2013 to 2022 8 Box 1-1: Automatic Enforcement Procedures Under the Budget Control Act 10 Budget Projections Under Alternative Scenarios 14 The Economic Outlook 25 The Economy in XXXXXXXXXX 2 The Economic Outlook for 2013 to XXXXXXXXXX Box 2-1: Fiscal Policy Under Current Law in XXXXXXXXXX The Economic Outlook for 2018 to 2022...
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