In Canada’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low-Greenhouse Gas Development Strategy, Canada has committed to the UN reduce emissions by 80% relative to 2005. As shown in the table below (Table A1 in the report), the biggest reduction will be in the Energy sector going from 748 MtCO2e to 149 MtCO2e in gross emissions. The Energy sector includes stationary combustion, transportation, fugitive emissions, and Ca
on Capture Transport and Storage. Following the Energy sector, remaining reductions will come from the Industrial, Agriculture, and Waste sectors.
The Strategy lists 12 building blocks for the long-term climate change mitigation strategy in pages 6-7 of the report.
CANADA’S MID-CENTURY
LONG-TERM LOW-GREENHOUSE GAS
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
COP
22
Cat. No.: XXXXXXXXXX
ISBN: En4-291/2016E-PDF
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CANADA’S MID-CENTURY LONG-TERM LOW-GREENHOUSE GAS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY iii
Contents
Foreword XXXXXXXXXX1
Executive Summary XXXXXXXXXX3
1 Context XXXXXXXXXX8
2 Existing Analyses on Deca
onisation XXXXXXXXXX13
3 Deca
onisation and Expansion of Canada’s Electricity System XXXXXXXXXX28
4 Energy Consumption in End Use Applications XXXXXXXXXX33
5 Non-Ca
on Dioxide Emissions XXXXXXXXXX51
6 Forests XXXXXXXXXX57
7 Agriculture XXXXXXXXXX62
8 Waste XXXXXXXXXX66
9 Clean Technology Sector XXXXXXXXXX70
10 Achieving a Low-Ca
on Future through Infrastructure Investments XXXXXXXXXX
Conclusion XXXXXXXXXX75
Reference List XXXXXXXXXX76
Annex 1: Detailed Modelling Results from 2050 Scenarios XXXXXXXXXX83
CANADA’S MID-CENTURY LONG-TERM LOW-GREENHOUSE GAS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 1
Foreword
Canada views this initial Mid-Century Strategy report as an opportunity to begin the
conversation about what a long-term low-greenhouse gas emission society would entail.
The report provides a basic framework regarding what challenges and opportunities
have cu
ently been identified in academic literature and expert based analyses
egarding deep emissions reductions in the mid to long-term.
Canada submits this strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) under the premise that the content of the report will continue to be
updated and adjusted as Canada advances on the implementation of its low-ca
on
development pathway. As such, Canada’s position is that the Mid-Century Strategies
should be submitted in an iterative or cyclical process, where Parties provide regular
updates as low-GHG technologies and national circumstances continue to evolve.
This iterative process will allow the Canadian public, experts, and stakeholder
communities, to provide substance to this framework as Canada moves towards a
common global objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
CANADA’S MID-CENTURY LONG-TERM LOW-GREENHOUSE GAS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY2
CANADA’S MID-CENTURY LONG-TERM LOW-GREENHOUSE GAS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 3
Executive Summary
Canada is committed to creating a cleaner, more
innovative economy that reduces emissions and
protects the environment, while creating well-paying
jobs and promoting robust economic growth.
A low-greenhouse gas future represents an
opportunity to increase prosperity and the well-being
of Canadians, to improve the livability of the built
environment, modernise transportation, and enhance
the natural environment.
Canada’s actions on climate change will help
communities in Canada in tangible and meaningful
ways, since clean growth is not just good for the
planet — it’s also good for the economy. The benefits
include: reducing air pollution and congestion,
modernising infrastructure to provide more inclusive
and sustainable cities, creating cleaner and more
modern communities, growing Canada’s clean
technology sector, increasing economic productivity
and efficiency, saving energy and reducing energy
costs, and enhancing resilience to the impacts of
climate change.
Addressing climate change paves the way towards
innovation and jobs in the clean energy and
technology sectors. This represents an opportunity to
adopt innovations that can enhance quality of life.
Canada is investing in a cleaner future for our children
and grandchildren, and creating the right conditions
for communities everywhere to create good jobs in a
modern, clean global economy.
For the purpose of the Mid-Century Strategy, Canada
examines an emissions abatement pathway consistent
with net emissions falling by 80% in 2050 from 2005
levels. This is consistent with the Paris Agreement’s
2°C to 1.5°C temperature goal.
The Paris Agreement, adopted at the 21st Conference
of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), represents
the first time in history that virtually all of the world’s
nations agreed to pursue their highest possible
ambition to combat climate change under a
common framework. Through the Paris Agreement
over 195 countries representing 97% of global GHG
emissions agreed to strengthen the global response
to the threat of climate change, including by holding
the increase in the global average temperature to well
elow 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above