ECON 1030 – BUSINESS STATISTICS 1
PROJECT
Instructions:
This is a group assignment with a minimum group size of two and a maximum group size of three. All group members must be enrolled in the same tutorial. There will be two parts to this assignment:
Part A: Business Report Part B: Ministerial Brief
This assignment, along with a Micro-credential component, is worth 40 marks. The allocation of marks is:
Part A
30
Statistical Analysis
22
Professional Report
8
Part B
8
Sub-total
38
Micro-credential*
2
Total
40
*This is a separate submission and the grade will appear separately on Canvas for each student.
The response to Part A must be provided in the form of a business report with no more than 10 pages (including cover page). The structure of your business report must include 1] A Title, 2] An Executive Summary, 3] An Introduction, 4] Analysis (Part A) and 5] Conclusions.
The response to Part B must be provided in the form of a ministerial brief with no more than 200 words and containing no more than three graphs.
In addition, you need to complete a Micro-credential on cross-cultural communication. To show evidence of successful completion you need to provide a copy of the badge. You have the option of completing the Micro-credential earlier in the semester and making a separate submission on Canvas. Alternatively, you can provide the badge along with your assignment submission. You have 2 attempts and you need a score of 80% to receive a badge.
You must submit an electronic copy of your assignment in Canvas. SHOW YOUR WORK for calculation based questions. See an attached Template of your submission for more details. Only one submission is required per group. Hard copies will not be accepted. It is very important that you submit an assignment cover sheet with all the group members’ signatures at the time of submission. If any dispute arises on your contribution to the group work, the cover sheet will be used as evidence of contribution.
This assignment requires the use of Microsoft Excel. If you have Windows, you will need to use the Data Analysis ToolPak. If you have a Mac with Excel 2011, you may need to use StatPlus:MAC LE.
Presentation Instructions:
Your written report should comply with the following presentation standards:
1. Typed using a standard professional font type (e.g. Times Roman), 12-point font size.
2. Single or 1.5 line spacing, numbered pages, and clear use of titles and section headings.
3. Delivered as a Word (.doc or .docx) or PDF (.pdf) file
4. Checked for spelling, typographical and grammatical errors. Where relevant, round to 3 decimal places.
5. With all relevant tables and charts, the report should be no more than 10 pages long.
Problem Description:
The blockchain is a decentralized ledger of all transactions across a peer-to-peer network. Using this technology, participants can confirm transactions without a need for a central clearing authority (or a middle man). According to some, replacing the middle man with a revolutionary technology that is faster, cheaper and as secure will greatly improve market efficiency.
One application of blockchain technology in finance is the “cryptocurrencies”, with the best known example being “Bitcoin”. Some believe that such a secure, global, and digital currency represents the future of finance, while some are not optimistic about the future of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
Useful links on blockchain and cryptocurrencies:
https://www.data61.csiro.au/en/our-work/safety-and-security/secure-systems-and-platforms/blockchain
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/financial-services/fintech/bitcoin-blockchain-cryptocurrency.html
Your task is to evaluate recent prices of Bitcoin and based on this evidence whether individuals should invest in Bitcoin. There are two parts to this assignment, each of which is described in detail:
Part A XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX = 22 marks; professional report = 8 marks)
Locate the data file (Assignment_BusStats.xls) on CANVAS.
1. Use the most appropriate type of graph to present the weekly closing price of Bitcoin (BIT) and provide a general description, commenting on the trend. [Topic 1]
2. Calculate the weekly return for BIT and construct a histogram. Does the data on return rates appear normally distributed? On the basis of z-scores do you find evidence of outliers? Hint: the formula for a return is (Current Price – Previous price)/Previous price multiplied by 100. [Topics 1-4]
3. Calculate and interpret the three aspects of Descriptive Analysis for weekly return: Location, Shape and Spread. Hint: make sure you interpret these measures in the context of the data and pay attention to the unit of measurement. [Topic 1]
4. Construct a 95% confidence interval for BIT return and interpret the interval. [Topics 6-7]
5. An investment advisor claimed that BIT return is 2%. Do you agree? Justify your reasoning using a two-tailed hypothesis test approach at the significance level of 5%. [Topic 8]
6. Repeat steps 1-5 above for another financial stock traded at the Australia Securities Exchange: the Macquarie Group Limited (MAC).
7. Explore the association between BIT and MAC returns. Specifically, construct a contingency table for the positive and non-positive returns of the two stocks and calculate the following: a) Prob (BIT return is positive), b) Prob (MAC return is positive), and c) Prob (positive BIT return conditional on positive MAC return). Are returns to BIT and MAC statistically independent? Hint: use the IF function in excel to construct the four joint events: +ve and +ve returns, +ve and -ve returns, -ve and +ve returns, -ve and -ve returns. [Topic 3]
Part B (Ministerial Brief = 8 marks)
Write a ministerial brief of no more than 200 words containing no more than three graphs on whether you can confidently recommend investing in the Bitcoin, as compared with MAC. Hint: draw on the relevant evidence you have gathered from Part A, as well as other information/evidence not covered here but you believe is useful.
Micro-credential (2 marks)
Complete a Micro-credential on cross-cultural communication.
Help with Group Assignment: Part A, Question 7
Create 4 indicators such that:
+ +: BIT return is positive, MAC return is positive
+ -: BIT return is positive, MAC return is negative
- +: BIT return is negative, MAC return is positive
- -: BIT return is negative, MAC return is negative
For each indicator, if the condition is satisfied, the value of the indicator = 1 and if the condition is not satisfied, the value = 0.
On Excel, we can use the IF AND command as follows:
=IF(AND(A2>0,B2>0),1,0)
To create the second indicator (+-) we use the command IF(AND(A2>0,B2<0),1,0), etc
Once we have created all 4 indicators, we can construct the contingency table:
MAC
+ve
MAC
-ve
Total
BIT +ve
BIT -ve
Total
<< Title of Report in Initial Capital Letters >>
Arial (18 points, Boldface)
Executive Summary
Here you present a one- or two-paragraph summary of the report. This summary should stand alone (no reference to figures or tables in the text) and provides a clear overview of the essential information comprising a report: context to the issue/topic, scope of the investigation, methodology used, and key findings and recommendations.
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Introduction
In the “Introduction,” make sure that you orient the audience with sufficient background to understand what the problem is and why the problem is important (engage with audience). You also provide: the aims and objectives of the report, a description of research methods, and overall structure of the report.
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Part A
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Conclusions
This section summarizes the document and provides closure. The difference between this summary and the executive summary is that the summary in the “Conclusion” is for someone who has read the report. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
References
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Other notes: a professional report also needs
· Page numbering
· Informative heading and sub-headings
· Numbered sections
· Labelled graphs and tables
· Nice overall formatting and presentation
Part B:
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Micro-credentials on cross-cultural communication
Provide a copy of the badge for each group member who has successfully completed the micro-credential.
1
How to write a Ministerial Brief
What is a Brief:
Briefings are used to keep decision makers informed about the issues they are responsible for. In government, briefings are the principal means of communication between government managers and their ministers.
A briefing note is a short paper that quickly and effectively informs a decision-maker about an issue. A useful briefing note distills often complex information into a short, well-structured document.
Characteristics of a good Briefing Note:
A well-prepared briefing note quickly and efficiently fills a person in on an issue. The most valuable BN is clear, concise and easy to read. To succeed, a briefing note should be:
· short: one to two pages, and always as short as possible
· concise: every word is used as efficiently as possible
· clear: keep it simple and to the point; always keep your reader firmly in mind
· reliable: the information in a briefing note must be accurate, sound and dependable; any missing information or questions about the information should be pointed out
· readable: use plain language and design your BN for maximum readability.
How is a Briefing Note structured?
Briefing notes often follow a standard format .They have three main parts:
The purpose (usually stated as the issue, topic or purpose) - states what has happened, is happening, will happen or might happen that requires his or her attention. When appropriate, it states what strengths (internal capabilities), weaknesses (internal vulnerabilities), opportunities (external circumstances that can